Methanol: Futures surged higher and fell back, and spot prices fluctuated strongly

On October 9th, the methanol market price index was 2308.16, up 11.03 from yesterday and 0.48 per cent higher than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on October 6th:

China CFR 283-290 USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 267-268euros / ton, up 16 euros / ton

Us FOB 85-90 cents per gallon, up 3 cents per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR 356-357 US dollars / ton, up 1.50 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2260-2300 (0), North Route: & nbsp;2100-2130 (20), Lunan: 2430-2450 (0), Henan: & nbsp;2360-2370 (10), Shanxi: 2260-2330 (0), Port: & nbsp;2445-2450 (5)

Freight:

Northern route-200-280 (- 10amp 0), southern route-northern Shandong 240-320 (- 10max 0), Shanxi-northern Shandong 100-160 (0max 0), Guanzhong-southwestern Shandong 160-220 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the price volatility in the spot market is strong, the futures market goes up and then falls back, the good news on the supply and demand side has been released, the market atmosphere has been boosted, and the transaction in the Chinese market is OK, but the wait-and-see mood remains in the market. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have been raised, with 2100-2130 yuan / ton on the north line and 20 yuan / ton on the low end. At present, the inventory pressure in the field is not great, the supply side is favorable to support some enterprises to raise their quotations and shipments, and the auction transaction is good. Follow-up attention to the operation of the plant in the field. Consumer market prices are stable and small, with southern Shandong 2430-2450 yuan / ton and northern Shandong 2360-2370 yuan / ton. The low end is stable. At present, the trading atmosphere on the market is general, and the mindset of operators is temporarily stable. Prices in North China are stable, including 2260-2330 yuan / ton in Shanxi and 2380-2430 yuan / ton in Hebei. The low end is stable, and some enterprises have strong quotations and downstream rigid demand for replenishment. Prices in southwest China have been partially lowered, of which Yungui quoted 2440-2500 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, Sichuan and Chongqing quoted 2350-2480 yuan / ton, and the low end is reduced by 30 yuan / ton. at present, the negotiations on the market are insipid, the downstream replenish goods on demand, and the operators wait and see carefully. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures fell after opening higher today. Spot and long-term high shipments are active, arbitrage to receive goods, spot basis is weak, long-term stability, frequent replacement in far and near months. The overall transaction is active. Taicang main port transaction price: 10 transaction price: 2485-2515, base difference 01: 0Universe price 5: 10 transaction: 2500-2520, base difference 01x17 pound 20: 10 transaction: 2505-2540, base difference 01x25 pound 30: 11 transaction: 2520-2545, base difference 01: 37max 40.

Forecast in the future: the coal price will rise steadily in the near future, the coal demand may continue to rise, and the cost support is strong. At present, there is frequent good news on the supply side of the Chinese market, the main producing area market Rongxin Phase I, northwest energy methanol plant parking maintenance, Yanzhou Mining National Coke plant near-term planned overhaul, downstream factory pick-up during the holiday period led to a substantial inventory of Chinese enterprises, good supply to support some enterprises to raise quotations. And the negotiation atmosphere is OK, but the operators' wait-and-see mood still exists, and in the later stage, we still need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field. In terms of demand, the start-up performance of products in the downstream market is different. At present, the raw material inventory of some downstream enterprises is on the high side. The overall replenishment enthusiasm is general, and there is no obvious volume on the demand side for the time being. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the start-up of downstream factories and load changes. At present, the cost side and supply side support are good, the performance of terminal downstream demand is general, more rigid demand procurement is maintained, the mindset of operators in the field is more wait-and-see, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to be arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro policy and the prices of crude oil and coal.