Methanol: The methanol market is weak and the transaction atmosphere in China is light

On October 8th, the methanol market price index was 2297.13, down 4.85 from yesterday, down 0.12% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on October 6th:

China CFR 283-290 USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 267-268euros / ton, up 16 euros / ton

Us FOB 85-90 cents per gallon, up 3 cents per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR 356-357 US dollars / ton, up 1.50 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2260-2300 (0), North Route: & nbsp;2080-2110 (0), Lunan: 2430-2450 (- 20), Henan: & nbsp;2350-2360 (0), Shanxi: 2260-2330 (0), Port: & nbsp;2440-2450 (- 10)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 210-280 (10Uniqure 20), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-320 (10Maple 10), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 100-160 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-220 (0max 0)

Spot market: methanol futures are closed today, the price volatility in the spot market is weak, the negotiations in the coastal market are light, the supply in the Chinese market is abundant, the demand side is not obvious for the time being, and the market operators have a strong wait-and-see mood. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas remains stable, with the northern line quoted at 2080-2110 yuan / ton, and the low end is stable. at present, most enterprises in the field wait and see mainly, Rongxin Phase I, northwest energy equipment maintenance, the atmosphere is slightly boosted, but the overall transaction is limited, follow-up pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. Consumer market prices are stable and small, with southern Shandong 2430-2450 yuan / ton, low-end down 20 yuan / ton, northern Shandong 2360-2390 yuan / ton, low-end stable. At present, the trading atmosphere on the market is light, and the mentality of operators is different. Prices in North China are stable, including 2260-2330 yuan / ton in Shanxi and 2380-2430 yuan / ton in Hebei. The low end is stable, and some enterprises have strong quotations and downstream rigid demand for replenishment. Prices in southwest China have been partially reduced, of which Yungui quotation is 2440-2500 yuan / ton, high-end price is 30 yuan / ton, Sichuan-Chongqing price is 2380-2480 yuan / ton, and the low end is stable. at present, the negotiations are light, the downstream replenishment is on demand, and the operators wait and see carefully. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: today, methanol futures closed, spot rigid demand buying and selling negotiations, long-term buying and selling gas improved, the selling price is strong, the price is slightly higher, the transaction is general. Taicang main Port transaction Price: spot / 10: 2440-2450, deal 10: 2450-2455, deal: 2460-2470, deal 11: 2470-2475.

Future forecast: from the supply point of view: after the festival, the Chinese market atmosphere is relatively light, the spot price is weak, the wait-and-see mentality is dominant, and the supply side fluctuates, the main producing area market Rongxin Phase I, northwest energy methanol plant parking maintenance, local atmosphere slightly boosted, some enterprises quoted prices have been raised, the near future plan to restart the plant has Hebi coal, Inner Mongolia Shilin, the overall start-up of the market is still on the high side The overall supply of the Chinese market is abundant, and we need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field in the later stage. From the demand point of view: the overall start-up of the terminal downstream products does not change much, and the downstream demand is still general after the festival. At present, the raw material inventory of some enterprises in the lower reaches is still high, and the overall replenishment enthusiasm is general. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the load changes of olefin units in the field. At present, the macro side is not good support for the time being, and the supply side is good for the release of information, but there is no obvious volume on the demand side for the time being, the transaction maintains rigid demand, the mindset of the operators in the market is more wait-and-see, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to be sorted out in a narrow range. In the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro policy and the prices of crude oil and coal.