Gasoline: Local refining continues to decline, and the main business makes up for the decline after the holiday

Gasoline: the local refinery continued its decline, and its main business was to make up for the decline after the holiday.

International crude oil closed

 

Date	Market	Specifications	Close (US dollars / barrel)	Rise and fall
20231006	America	WTI	82.79	0.48
20231006	The United Kingdom	Brent	84.58	0.51

 

Gasoline price index

On October 7, China's gasoline price index fell 152.37, or 1.60%, to 9381.22, while China's gasoline price index fell 146.81, or 1.49%, to 9713.27. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 332.06.

 

Gasoline market analysis:

Today, the reduction in the wholesale price of gasoline in China is concentrated at 100-330 yuan per ton. The ex-factory price of Earth Refinery fell as a whole, with a reduction of 100-300 yuan / ton. At present, the turnover in China's gasoline market is poor, and the shipping speed of local refineries during the holiday period is slow. Successive price cuts continue to decline today, and the main units make up for the decline after the holiday. The middle and lower reaches are dominated by the consumption of pre-inventory, replenishment efforts are insufficient, and overall market trading is light.

October 7 main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 9.28	Price 10.7	Rise and fall
North China region	92#	9050-10130	8800-10130	-250/0
	95#	9250-10510	9000-10510	-250/0
South China	92#	9350-9950	9100-9750	-250/-200
	95#	9600-10250	9350-10050	-250/-200
Central China	92#	9270-9600	9050-9500	-220/-100
	95#	9420-9850	9200-9700	-220/-150
East China region	92#	9200-9650	8950-9650	-250/0
	95#	9400-10000	9150-10000	-250/0
Northwestern region	92#	9280-10134	8950-10134	-330/0
	95#	9480-10620	9150-10620	-330/0
Southwest China	92#	9450-9760	9250-9760	-200/0
	95#	9700-10210	9500-10100	-200/-110
Northeast China	92#	9300-9900	9150-9600	-150/-300
	95#	9670-10400	9500-10000	-170/-400

 

October 7 gasoline refinery ex-factory price (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 9.28	Price 10.7	Rise and fall
Shandong area	92#	8800-9150	8510-8970	-290/-180
	95#	8960-9300	8660-9050	-300/-250
North China region	92#	8890-9000	8700-8740	-190/-260
	95#	8990-9050	8750-8840	-240/-210
Central China	92#	9240-9240	8960-8960	-280/-280
	95#	9440-9440	9160-9160	-280/-280
East China region	92#	8910-9050	8670-8800	-240/-250
	95#	9030-9220	8790-8970	-240/-250
Northwestern region	92#	9050-9250	8800-8950	-250/-300
	95#	9200-9450	8950-9150	-250/-300
Northeast China	92#	9300-9300	9200-9200	-100/-100
	95#	9500-9500	9400-9400	-100/-100

 

Future forecast

From the perspective of international crude oil, the current international oil price has rebounded but fell sharply during the holiday period, which is the largest weekly decline since March 2023. After the end of the holiday, there may be rigid demand for replenishment to slow down the market to a certain extent, but the recent Chinese market, such as no holidays and other positive demand support returned to dull, the supply side is relatively stable. Due to the influence of international oil prices, China's upcoming price adjustment of refined oil products is expected to change from rising to falling, and there is no favorable guidance on the news. Taking a comprehensive view of the lack of positive stimulus in China's gasoline market, refinery quotations are easy to fall but difficult to rise, and it is expected that China's gasoline market will continue to decline in the short term.

 

 

Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Since 24:00 on September 20, 2023, the prices of gasoline and diesel in China (the same below) will be increased by 385 yuan and 370 yuan per ton respectively. After the adjustment, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and central cities are shown in the attached table. The next price adjustment is expected to be October 10th.

 

Schedule

Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Unit: yuan / ton

	I. areas with one province and one price
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Beijing	10500	9435
Tianjin	10465	9400
Hebei Province	10465	9400
Shanxi province	10535	9455
Liaoning province	10465	9400
Jilin Province	10465	9400
Heilongjiang province	10465	9400
Shanghai	10480	9405
Jiangsu Province	10520	9440
Zhejiang Province	10520	9455
Anhui province	10515	9450
Fujian Province	10540	9465
Jiangxi province	10520	9460
Shandong province	10475	9410
Hubei province	10490	9425
Hunan Province	10530	9485
Henan province	10485	9420
Hainan province	10610	9535
Chongqing	10680	9610
Guangdong province	10545	9470
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region	10610	9535
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region	10470	9400
Gansu province	10450	9420
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region	10245	9295
II. Areas with one province and one price will not be implemented for the time being
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Hohhot	10480	9415
Chengdu city	10685	9635
Guiyang city	10645	9560
Kunming City	10675	9590
Xi'an city	10450	9410
Xining City	10430	9445

                                                                

Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.

2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIA and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.

3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.

4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 9735 yuan and 8670 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.