Methanol: The methanol market is mixed and operators have a strong wait-and-see attitude

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October 7, 2023, 4:56 PM

On October 7th, the methanol market price index was 2301.98, down 3.44 from the previous working day, and 0.15% lower than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on October 6th:

China CFR 283-290 USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 267-268euros / ton, up 16 euros / ton

Us FOB 85-90 cents per gallon, up 3 cents per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR 356-357 US dollars / ton, up 1.50 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2260-2300 (0), North Route: & nbsp;2080-2110 (10), Lunan: 2450 (0), Henan: & nbsp;2350-2370 (- 30), Shanxi: 2260-2330 (40), Port: & nbsp;2450-2460 (- 20)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 200-300 (0ax 0), South Line-North Shandong 240-330 (0ax 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 100-160 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-220 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, there are no futures guidelines in the methanol market, there are ups and downs in the Chinese market, spot prices do not change much compared with those before the festival, the supply in the Chinese market is abundant, the demand side is relatively stable, and the mood of receiving goods downstream is generally general. The wait-and-see mood of the market is strong. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have moved steadily, with the price quoted on the north line ranging from 2080 yuan to 2110 yuan per ton, and the lower end has been raised by 10 yuan per ton. when most enterprises come back from the festival, they have not issued a new price, and some devices are planned to be overhauled in the near future. follow up to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field. Consumer market prices are down, with southern Shandong 2450-2460 yuan / ton, low-end stable, northern Shandong 2360-2370 yuan / ton, and low-end down 20 yuan / ton. at present, the trading atmosphere is light and the mindset of operators is different. Prices in North China have been partially raised, including 2260-2330 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 40 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2380-2430 yuan / ton in Hebei, with firm quotations from some enterprises and rigid demand for replenishment downstream. Prices in southwest China remain stable, of which Yungui quoted 2440-2530 yuan / ton, Sichuan and Chongqing quoted 2380-2480 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the current market negotiations are light, downstream replenishment on demand, wait-and-see mood is dominant. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: today, methanol futures closed, spot a small amount of rigid demand, long-term part of the unilateral and exchange transactions, the price is lower than before the festival, the transaction is OK. Taicang main Port transaction Price: 10 on deal: 2430-2435 on deal: 2450 on 10 on deal: 2450-2455 on 11 on deal: 2460-2465.

Area	2023/10/7	2023/9/28	Rise and fall
The whole country	2301.98	2305.42	-3.44
Northwest	2060-2300	2060-2300	0/0
North China	2260-2430	2220-2430	40/0
East China	2450-2540	2470-2570	-20/-30
South China	2430-2550	2460-2560	-30/-10
Southwest	2380-2530	2380-2530	0/0
Northeast China	2320-2450	2320-2450	0/0
Shandong	2360-2460	2380-2480	-20/-20
Central China	2350-2660	2380-2660	-30/0

Forecast in the future: the recent decline in crude oil is relatively large, but the coal price is steadily rising, the cost is strong, the overall price in the Chinese market has little change compared with that before the festival, and the wait-and-see mentality of the operators in the market is mainly. Although the methanol plant of Inner Mongolia Rongxin Phase I and Northwest Energy plans to stop and overhaul, the early parking device resumes production to a certain extent against the supply reduction brought about by plant maintenance. Hebi Coal Chemical, Yunnan Jiehua and Inner Mongolia Shilin plan to restart in the near future, the market start is still on the high side, the overall supply in China is still abundant, and in the later stage, we need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. From the point of view of demand, the overall start-up of terminal downstream products does not change much, and the downstream demand performance is relatively stable. At present, the raw material inventory of downstream enterprises is still high, and the overall replenishment enthusiasm is general. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the load change of the olefin unit in the field. At present, the cost side is supported, the supply and demand side does not change much, the downstream maintains rigid demand procurement, the market atmosphere is relatively light, the mindset of the operators in the market is more wait-and-see, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to be arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro policy and the prices of crude oil and coal.

Recent operation of the device:

Name of production enterprise	Annual capacity; ten thousand tons	Raw material	Starting date of maintenance	Maintenance end date	Operation of the device
Shanxi Everbright	15	Coke oven gas	2023/9/25	To be determined	Parking maintenance
Inner Mongolia Shilin	30	Coal	2023/7/30	2023/10/11	Planned maintenance for 2 months
Yunnan disintegration	24	Natural gas	2023/8/12	2023 / October	Parking maintenance
Hebi coalification	60	Coal	2023/9/21	2023/10/15	Parking maintenance
Inner Mongolia Rongxin Phase I	90	Coal	2023/10/8	2023/10/18	Planned maintenance for 10 days
Northwest energy	30	Coal	2023/10/8	To be determined	Parking maintenance