[Ethanol Daily Review]: China's ethanol market trends on October 07

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October 7, 2023, 4:51 PM

The price index of general-grade ethanol was 6533.25 on October 07, up from-46 on the previous working day.

The price of ethanol market in China is weakening in the region. October 07 hot spots: first, prices in Henan have dropped significantly. Second, the price in East China will be reduced by 100 yuan per ton. Third, the price trend in Northeast China is stable. Fourth, the bidding price of ethyl acetate is stable. Fifth, the freight rate is moving steadily. Sixth, the transaction premium of coal-based ethanol increased slightly. Seventh, corn prices in China are weakening.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China remain stable, individual lines of large factories in Heilongjiang resume, but there are more food carts, and prices remain stable. The price in Henan area falls, the enterprise inventory increases, the shipping mentality is positive, the price weakens sharply. The price of enterprises in East China is weaker, and the price around it falls sharply, which affects the mentality of shipping in East China. Northeast enterprise Jilin market price 6700-6800 yuan / ton, Jilin no water 7350-7550 yuan / ton. The general grade of Heilongjiang market is 6550-6800 yuan / ton, and the Heilongjiang anhydrous market is 7450-7550 yuan / ton. The northeast closing position is about 7000-7050 yuan / ton. The superior enterprises in Central China are quoted at 6800 yuan / ton, and the water-free price is 7700-7800 yuan / ton. The price of ethanol in East China is 7050 yuan / ton. The price of anhydrous ethanol is 7800-7950 yuan / ton, and the general price in southern Jiangsu is 7200-7300 yuan / ton. Cassava ethanol & nbsp;7200-7350 yuan / ton in Guangxi, South China.

& nbsp; unit: yuan / ton

Area	Specifications	Market	2023/10/07	2023/9/27	Rise and fall
South China	Cassava is anhydrous	Guangxi	7850-7950	7850-7950	0/0
	Molasses 95%	Guangxi	-	-	-
	Cassava 95%	Guangxi	7200-7350	7200-7350	0/0
North China	Superior grade	Hebei	-	-	-
North China	No water	Hebei	7700-7800	7700-7800	0/0
Northeast China	General level	Jilin	6700-6800	6700-6800	0/0
	No water	Jilin	7350-7600	7350-7600	0/0
	General level	Jinzhou	7000-7050	7000-7050	0/0
	General level	Heilongjiang Province	6550-6800	6550-6800	0/0
East China	General level	Anhui Province	7100-7100	7100-7150	0/-50
	No water	Anhui Province	7800-7850	7800-7850	0/0
	No water	Shandong	7800-7900	7800-7900	0/0
	General level	Shandong	7050-7050	7100-7100	-50/-50
	Superior grade	Shandong	7100-7300	7200-7300	-100/0
	Send it to other places without water.	Shandong	7800-7900	7800-7900	0/0
	General level	Northern Jiangsu	7050-7050	7150-7150	-100/-100
	No water	Northern Jiangsu	7800-7950	7900-8000	-100/-50
	General level	Southern Jiangsu	7200-7300	7200-7300	0/0
Central China	Superior grade	Henan	6800-6800	7000-7000	-200/-200
Central China	No water	Henan	7700-7800	7800-7850	-100/-50

Raw materials / by-products and downstream

Unit: yuan / ton, US dollar / ton

Area	Market	Raw materials / by-products	2023/10/07	Remarks
Northeast China	Jilin	Corn	2560-2660
Northeast China	Jilin	DDGS	2700-2800
Northeast China	Heilongjiang Province	Corn	2440-2550	Less transactions at a low price
Northeast China	Heilongjiang Province	DDGS	2700-2900	High fat
Central China	Henan	Corn	2790-2850
Central China	Henan	DDGS	2790
Thailand		Dried cassava	280-285
Shandong		Ethyl acetate	7150-7150	Acceptance leaves the factory
Jiangsu Province		Ethyl acetate	7200-7300
South China		Ethyl acetate	7550-7600

Future forecast: short-term regional trend of China's ethanol market, there are not many shipments in Henan during the festival, enterprise inventory increases, shipping mentality has a positive impact on price weakening, cross-regional arbitrage has been opened, whether downstream and traders continue to wait and see needs further observation; chemical industry in East China has replenishment, but the current price is higher than the price sent to other regions, the price may be slightly weak. The inventory of the northeast big factory is not high and the car pressure is obvious, the price is stable.

Raw material: corn ethanol: the price of Chinese corn weakens under the influence of regional quantity. At present, the supply of ddgs is increasing, the demand is limited, and prices continue to weaken. Cassava dry aspect: enterprise rigid demand procurement, Thailand is willing to raise the price is obvious, cassava dry inventory sales are expected short-term cassava dry price high finishing.

Supply: northeast start: Dongning shutdown, Baoquanling shutdown, Cofco Zhaodong normal, Wanli installation normal, Hongzhan 3 factory installation normal, Raha Phase II feeding, Heilongjiang Shenglong production, Zhongke Green production, Fuyu Huihai shutdown; Fukang production, Tianyu production, Shuntong shutdown, Dongfeng Huafang downtime, Xintianlong normal, Liniu downtime. East China Flower Hall production, Guannan shutdown, Jin Changlin shutdown, Guohua shutdown, Changxing production, Longhe production, Romat production, sul shutdown, Fulaichun continued downtime, Maibo Huihui shutdown, MINUSTAH production. The installation in Mengzhou, Henan Province is stable. Jufeng shuts down. Chifeng Ruiyang production, Zalantun production. Jilin fuel is normal, Guotou Tieling production. Tianguan Nanyang production. Guotou Jidong production. State Investment Helen production.

Demand: downstream chemical rigid demand procurement. Liquor order purchase.

Logistics: logistics price is stable.

Equipment maintenance table of Chinese ethanol enterprises

Enterprise name	Production capacity (10,000 tons / year)	Maintenance involves production capacity	Maintenance start time	Remarks
Heilongjiang Hongzhan (Jixian)	60	60	April fifteenth	Start up on May 6th
Jilin Fukang	50	4	March 28th
Heilongjiang Hexing grain and oil	3	3	Late March
Inner Mongolia Shuntong	12	12	Stop the machine
Heilongjiang Zhongke Green	10	10	Stop the machine
Fulaichun, Shandong Province	20	20	Stop the machine
Jiangsu Dongcheng	15	15	Stop the machine
Guannan COVID-19, Lianyungang	5	5	Stop the machine
Jiangsu Haiyan	15	15	Start up in the middle of May
Jiangsu Maibo remittance	8	8	Stop feeding at the beginning of April
Shuyang Guohua	5	5	Resume downtime in mid-August around July 10
Anhui COFCO	75	30	The material has been put in on April 20th.
Anhui Wuhechun	8	8	Stop the machine
Jilin Xintianlong	30	30	Shut down on May 5, start on the 17th, reduce production on the 21st, full production on July 15th.
Heilongjiang Sheng long	15	15	Shut down on April 27-start on June 5, put in material from July 19 to September 16
Inner Mongolia Liniu	10	10	Stop the machine
Hanyong, Mengzhou, Henan Province	30	30	One-line production
Houyuan, Mengzhou, Henan Province	50	50	Open on May 21
Jilin Dongfeng Hua Grain	10	10	Stop feeding on April 17th
National Investment Helen	30	30	April 12-May 24, September 20-September 26	Fuel fuel
Guotou Jidong	30	30	April 3rd	Fuel fuel
Zhenjiang Changxing	10	10	All machines were shut down on May 16, June 5, July 19, August 28.
Jin Changlin in Lianyungang	5	5	Shutdown on May 18, production on August 7, shutdown around August 15.
Hongzhang, ha.	60	30	Stop from May 27 to July 20, Phase II September 25
Fukang	50	50	Feed from August 10 to August 31
Tianyu	15	15	Stop feeding on July 21 and feed on August 13
Cofco Zhaodong	30	10	Stop feeding on June 5-June 20, July 15 stop fuel production on July 31, feed on August 15
Chifeng Ruiyang	8	8	Shut down on June 10th and feed on July 4th.
Hongzhan Tahiko	30	30	Stop from June 20th to July 5th
Wanli Runda	60	60	Shutdown on July 15th and feeding on July 31st
Lianyungang Longhe River	10	10	The device stopped feeding on July 3, August 21.
Jiangsu sul alcohol	12	12	The device was shut down on July 3
Liaoyuan giant peak	50	50	Production stopped on July 4th and August 1st.
Zalantun	10	10	The product will be released around July 6th.
Shandong Yingxuan	20	20	Shut down at the end of June and put in material on July 25.
Jilin fuel	70	70	The two lines will be inspected from 31 July to 20 August.
Guotou Tieling	30	30	The machine was shut down on July 31 for maintenance and put in the material on August 10.
Henan Nanyang Tianguan	30	30	August 15 put into production
Romet.	5	5	August 18 put into production
Fuyu Huihai	5	5	Downtime in mid-August
China Colleen	10	10	Feeding starts on August 22nd
Guotou Jidong	30	30	Feed in early September