Daily Review of Urea: There is no good market to support companies to implement pre-holiday advance receipts (October 7)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on October 7 was 2523, down 5.91 from the previous working day, down 0.23% month-on-month, and down 2.21% year-on-year.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices continued to be slightly lowered. The National Day holiday ended, and market prices were generally relatively stable during the long holiday.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,510 - 2,610 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,300 - 2,560 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,480 - 2,490 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China have stabilized at 236- 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,400 - 2,480 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,420 - 2,700 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles fell to 2,470 - 2,510 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,550 - 2,670 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of supply, with the successive restart of pre-maintenance equipment and the release of new production capacity, supply continues to rise. The overall situation is relatively loose and supply is sufficient in a short period of time. In terms of enterprises, when the National Day holiday ends, companies often implement advance orders before the holiday. During the National Day period, corporate quotations are relatively stable. In terms of demand, the overall demand after the holiday is still low. There is some autumn fertilizer purchase demand in the Northeast market, but the actual purchase transaction is small. In terms of cost, there is currently no significant change in upstream raw material prices, and cost support is limited. In terms of exports, although India currently has bidding expectations, China's export supervision has tightened and export volume is limited, which has no impact on Chinese prices.

On the whole, there is currently no favorable support for urea market prices in China. It will be difficult for urea market prices to rise in a short period of time, and prices are expected to remain mainly downward.