Methanol: Futures surged higher and fell back. Chinese markets were mixed

On September 28th, the methanol market price index was 2305.42, down 0.37 from yesterday and 0.02 per cent lower than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on September 27th:

China CFR 283-290 USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 251-252 euros / ton, up 3 euros / ton

Us FOB 82-84 cents per gallon, up 2 cents per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR 354.5-355.5 US dollars / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2260-2300 (0), North Route: & nbsp;2070-2110 (0), Lunan: & nbsp;2450 (0), Henan: & nbsp;2380-2390 (20), Shanxi: 2220-2310 (- 30), Port: & nbsp;2470-2490 (10)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 200-300 (0ax 0), South Line-North Shandong 240-330 (0ax 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 100-160 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-220 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is arranged in a narrow range, the spot quotation fluctuates 5-30 yuan / ton, the futures market rises and then falls back, the market atmosphere rebounds slightly near the holiday, the supply in the Chinese market continues to increase, and the demand for pre-holiday stock in the lower reaches of the terminal is general. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is stable, the price on the north line is 2070-2110 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, near the holiday, the enterprises in the field mainly carry out the previous contracts, and some enterprises sell goods by auction with a small amount, and the transaction is smooth. Consumer market prices remain stable, southern Shandong 2450 yuan / ton, northern Shandong 2380-2390 yuan / ton, low-end stable, the current trading atmosphere is light, downstream more on-demand procurement. Prices in North China have been partially reduced, including 2220-2310 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 30 yuan / ton in the low end, 2380-2430 yuan / ton in Hebei, 20 yuan / ton in the low end, lower quotations of some enterprises, and downstream rigid demand for replenishment. Prices in southwest China have moved steadily, including 2440-2530 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2380-2480 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, with a stable low end. At present, the supply of goods in the market is sufficient, the downstream stock is basically over, and the market buying gas is weakening. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated lower today. Spot rigid demand trading, long-term a small number of unilateral low-order enquiries, arbitrage mainly, the basis stabilized. The overall transaction throughout the day is mediocre. Taicang main port transaction price: 9 lower deal: 2465-2490, base difference 01-15 Maximus 10 transaction 10 transaction: 2480-2500, base difference 01-2500, base difference 01-2500, base difference 01-2510, base difference 01x20, transaction price: 2505-2525, base difference 01x28, price 32, transaction 11, transaction: 2520-2535, base difference 0138thumb 40.

Forecast in the future: recently, most enterprises in the Chinese market have gone to the warehouse, some traders have gradually withdrawn from the market before the festival, the market buying gas is light, and the number of transport vehicles in the field has gradually decreased, but during the holidays, most production enterprises are operating steadily, and Chinese enterprises' inventory may accumulate. at present, there are no new maintenance and restart devices in the market, the start of the Chinese market is still on the high side, and the overall supply in China is still abundant, but the supply increment has slowed down compared with the previous period. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field, from the demand point of view, the overall start of the terminal downstream products does not change much, and the start of the MTO industry still maintains a high level. At present, the raw material inventory of downstream enterprises remains high, coupled with the fact that downstream and traders gradually enter the holiday, the overall replenishment enthusiasm is general, and in the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the load change of the olefin plant after the festival and the repair of downstream profits. At present, the cost support is general, the supply and demand side does not change much, the rigid demand replenishment under the high inventory downstream, the market atmosphere is slightly light, the mentality of the operators in the market is more wait-and-see, and it is expected that the short-term methanol market price or narrow range arrangement, in the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro policy, crude oil, coal prices and post-festival market mentality changes.