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Caustic soda: Futures market is negative for four consecutive times, and the trend of the spot market is differentiated

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September 28, 2023, 4:11 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    September 28th SH2405 contract opening price: 2898, the highest price: 2905, the lowest price: 2797, the spread: 108,108, the position: 44124, the reduction: 384, the settlement price: 2860, yesterday's settlement: 2908, down: 48, the closing price: 2800, the daily trading volume: 218744 hands, the precipitated capital: 890 million, the capital outflow: 195 million.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

September twenty _ seventh

September twenty _ eighth

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1170-1400

1170-1400

0/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

896-1008

896-1008

0/0

Ex-factory price

North China

970-1050

970-1050

0/0

-

Hebei

1010-1050

1010-1050

0/0

Ex-factory price

South China

1100-1300

1100-1300

0/0

Can price

Shandong

950-1030

950-1030

0/0

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

1150-1180

1150-1180

0/0

-

Jiangsu Province

1000-1080

1000-1080

0/0

Delivery price

Tianjin

3200-3400

3200-3400

0/0

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

1020-1050

1020-1050

0/0

Ex-factory price

Henan

2700-3300

2700-3500

0/200

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1590-1750

1590-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1700-1750

1700-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1610-1700

1580-1700

-30/0

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

3520-3600

3520-3600

0/0

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3550-3650

3400-3500

-150/-150

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

3200-3450

3200-3450

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3550-3650

3550-3650

0/0

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1580-1600

1580-1600

0/0

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

1000-1060

970-1030

-30/-30

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

3200-3500

3200-3700

0/200

A discount of 100%

 

Caustic soda spot analysis:       today, there are differences in the operation of China's caustic soda market, prices rise and fall each other, the market transaction atmosphere is general, near short holiday, the market wait-and-see mood is heavy, most areas do not see a big market. Today, the trend of the liquid alkali market shows differential operation, local prices have been adjusted, and prices vary. From the point of view of regional market price adjustment, 32% ionic membrane alkali rose 200 yuan / ton in some areas, 50% ionic membrane alkali fell 30-150 yuan / ton, 30% ionic membrane alkali fell 30 yuan / ton, 48% ionic membrane alkali rose 200 yuan / ton, and the prices of other concentrations of alkali remained stable, and the price range has not been significantly adjusted. The purchase price of alumina in individual regions of central China was raised in October, which formed support for the local and surrounding areas, and the price center of market transaction moved upwards. the downstream industry demand in some areas is OK, and the enterprise shipments are smooth. The mentality of the operators is good, and the price center of gravity of the local market has moved up; the inventory of some enterprises in some areas is relatively high, reducing the price to promote shipment, and the price range moves down slightly. The overall trend of the market in other regions is relatively stable, the supply and demand side has not changed much, the industry is mainly watching the market, and the price has not fluctuated obviously. Some manufacturers of upstream production enterprises adjust their quotations, and the price adjustment direction is different. Today, the tablet alkali market has moved steadily, the market in most regions has maintained a stable trend, the center of gravity of market transactions in some regions has moved up, the pre-sale of manufacturers is normal, the start of plant construction is relatively stable, and the overall performance of downstream demand is stable. The wait-and-see mood in the market is heavier, and the price adjustment is more cautious.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:   SH2405 contracts show an inverted "N" trend. Prices rebounded after the opening of night trading, and early futures continued the upward trend of late night trading, continuing to rise slightly to today's highest level of 2905, then began to fluctuate downwards, and then fluctuated slightly around 2854 in the afternoon, followed by a dive, with a low of 2797, not lower than the previous 2790. Today's turnover: 15.7% more than empty 20.7%; empty 20.4% more than 19.2%.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tdd-global data, China's caustic soda index fell by 0.22% to 3037.43, down 6.71%, while China's caustic soda index fell.

 

 

Caustic soda late forecast:     futures SH2405 contract showed four consecutive negative trend, the end of the day continuous small diving, the short disk is more active. On the spot side, there is only one day left in the pre-festival market, there is no big market in most areas of the market, and most of them maintain a wait-and-see mood, while in the later stage, from the supply side, some of the devices after the festival will enter the maintenance period. at that time, the supply side will bring favorable support to the market, but before the equipment is overhauled at the initial stage of the festival, it is necessary to pay attention to the inventory situation of enterprises during the holiday period. The demand in the downstream of the demand side does not change much before the festival, and the replenishment of some downstream enterprises after the festival needs to be paid attention to. In addition, it is understood that under the expectation of good supply after the festival, most operators have confidence in the post-holiday market and are bullish, but in the later stage, they need to pay attention to the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises to receive goods.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

September twenty _ seventh

September twenty _ eighth

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

200-400

100-300

-100/-100

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

200-400

50-300

-150/-100

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

50-100

1-100

-49/0

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

300-450

200-350

-100/-100

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

150-200

150-200

0/0

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

300-400

200-300

-100/-100

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, China's liquid chlorine spot index was 302.78, down 61.11, or 16.79%, and China's liquid chlorine index fell.

 

 

Caustic soda holding the list: