PVC: The futures price trend has been negative for six consecutive years, the short trend has continued, and the technology has shown a dead fork, and the spot price has been lowered at a low level.

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September 27, 2023, 4:42 PM

PVC futures analysis: September 27th V2401 contract opening price: 6170, highest price: 6182, lowest price: 6115, position: 842034, settlement price: 6143, yesterday settlement: 6212, down: 69, daily trading volume: 986647 lots, precipitated capital: 3.606 billion, capital inflow: 1.5 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 9.26	Price 9.27	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	6000-6090	5950-6000	-50/-90	Send to cash remittance
East China	6030-6160	5980-6080	-50/-80	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	6100-6230	6040-6150	-60/-80	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	6000-6150	5950-6100	-50/-50	Send to cash remittance
Central China	6070-6080	5950-6000	-120/-80	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	6000-6100	5900-6000	-100/-100	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices continue to decline in various regions, the spot market atmosphere continues to be weak. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 50-90 yuan / ton in North China, 50-80 yuan / ton in East China, 60-80 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 80-120 yuan / ton in Central China and 100 yuan / ton in Southwest China. The factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises has been reduced by 50-100 yuan / ton, including the synchronous downward price of remote storage. Futures prices continue to fall deeply, traders in various regions lack offer mentality, one-off offer is lower than yesterday, and it is difficult to close a high offer. After the shock of PVC futures weakens, the point price source has price advantage, and the basis offer part is weaker than yesterday, including East China basis offer 01 contract-(50100130), South China 01 contract-(050100100), North 01 contract-(400,500) Southwest 01 contract-(250). On the whole, the spot market is dominated by spot prices, while the downstream terminals maintain rigid demand and properly replenish goods at low prices, while some transactions are OK at low prices.

Futures point of view: PVC2401 contract opening night trading is the highest price, and then the futures price weakens slightly. After the start of morning trading, futures prices continue to fluctuate at low levels, and the trend of afternoon prices is still hovering at the bottom, with no obvious trend change. 2401 contracts range from 6115 to 6182 throughout the day, with a spread of 67. 01. The contract increased its position by 7987 hands, and so far it holds 842034 hands. The 2405 contract closed at 6179, with 82102 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2401 contract price operation appeared six consecutive overcast, short trend continued, today's futures disk price low continued to break the track down, and the disk showed a downward trend of increasing positions, the recent short position entrenched, the transaction opened 26.3% compared with 20.7% more, but the corresponding short level also increased. The technical level shows that the opening of the lower rail in the Bolin belt (13,13,2) is still obvious downward, the opening of the upper rail is upward, and the interval is enlarged. At present, close to the National Day holiday, the market does not show an obvious reduction of positions to leave the market, but continues to decline, leading to weak expectations in the fourth quarter ahead of schedule, so there may still be some repeated expectations in the middle of the market, but the operation of futures prices in the short term may still continue to hover at a low level. Observe the performance of the integer gate 6100.

Spot: the continuous weakness of the two cities from the high price downward, the futures price running below 6300, the point price transaction is relatively active, on the one hand, coincides with the National Day holiday, on the other hand, the futures price is expected to rise in the third quarter, the high price suppressed part of the demand, so the price decline triggered some real order replenishment. However, at present, regardless of the beginning of the production enterprises, traders have feedback that although there is a deal at the point price, the overall pace of shipment is still relatively slow, especially the shipping of production enterprises is relatively poor. In addition, some businesses consider taking goods at current prices, but they are currently facing uncertainties in the outer disk of the National Day holiday, so they are in a dilemma. The current period of the operation of the two cities is slightly weak, some give up the previous increase, on the other hand, the continued decline in prices has also caused a return to the bearish mentality. On the whole, our spot market will not perform well in the short term before the festival, but in view of the advance of the deep decline, there may still be expectations in the middle line, but the high point is limited.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 9.26	Price 9.27	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	6173	6117	-56
	Average spot price in East China	6095	6030	-65
	Average spot price in South China	6165	6095	-70
	PVC2401 basis difference	-78	-87	-9
	V2405 collection	6233	6179	-54
	V2401-2405 closed	-60	-62	-2
	PP2401 collection	7731	7716	-15
	Plastic L2401 collection	8230	8219	-11
	V--PP basis difference	-1558	-1599	-41
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2057	-2102	-45

China PVC Index: according to Tudoduo data, the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC fell 73.65, or 1.209%, to 6018.72 on Sept. 27. The PVC spot index of ethylene method was 6356.68, up 59.44%, with a range of 0.944%. The calcium carbide index decreased, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 337.96.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	9.26 warehouse orders	9.27 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	843	843	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	402	402	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	274	274	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,417	2,417	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,292	1,292	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,329	1,329	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	9,224	8,705	-519
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,781	1,781	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	2,582	2,582	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang Jiahua	29,253	28,734	-519
PVC subtotal		29,253	28,734	-519
Total		843	843	0