Methanol: The methanol market is narrow and the transaction atmosphere in China is good

On September 27th, the methanol market price index was 2305.79, down 0.76 from yesterday and 0.03 per cent lower than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on September 26:

China CFR 283-289 US dollars / ton, up 3 US dollars / ton

European FOB 248-249 euros / ton, down 2.75 euros / ton

Us FOB 80-82 cents per gallon, up 3 cents per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR 354.5-355.5 US dollars / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2260-2300 (0), North Route: & nbsp;2070-2110 (0), Lunan: & nbsp;2450 (0), Henan: & nbsp;2360-2395 (10), Shanxi: 2250-2330 (0), Port: & nbsp;2460-2470 (15)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 200-300 (0ax 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 240-300 (10ax 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 100-160 (- 10max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-220 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is arranged in a narrow range, the spot quotation fluctuates by 10-50 yuan / ton, the futures market fluctuates, the supply in the Chinese market is still abundant, the pre-festival stock is over, and the terminal downstream inventory is high for on-demand purchase. the auction of some enterprises is OK. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are stable and small, with the northern line quoting 2070-2110 yuan / ton, and the low end is stable. As the holiday approaches, some enterprises still have inventory demand to lower their quotations and shipments, and the transaction is OK. Consumer market prices are partially stable, with 2450 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2380-2440 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The low end is stable. At present, the mindset of market operators is strong, and more on-demand purchases are made downstream. Prices in North China remain stable, of which Shanxi quoted 2250-2330 yuan / ton, Hebei quoted 2400-2430 yuan / ton, low-end stability, some enterprises quoted firm, general transaction. Prices in southwest China have been partially reduced, of which Yungui quotation is 2440-2560 yuan / ton, low-end price is 50 yuan / ton, Sichuan-Chongqing price is 2380-2480 yuan / ton, low-end price is stable. At present, the wait-and-see mood of the market is dominant, the downstream receiving mood is general, and the rigid demand is mainly buying. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: today, methanol futures shock consolidation. Within the month rigid demand negotiations; long-term arbitrage and exchange mainly, unilateral participation is less, the basis stabilized, the price difference is slightly larger. The overall transaction throughout the day is mediocre. Taicang main port transaction price: 9 lower deal: 2465-2470, base difference 01-13 prime price 10: 10 transaction: 2480-2490, base difference 01: 2490, base difference 01: 2500, base difference 01: 20, transaction price: 2500-2515, basis difference 01: 27, margin 32: 11, transaction: 2510-2520, base difference 01: 40.

Future forecast: on the supply side: during the period of centralized stock preparation in late September, downstream and traders actively purchased, the inventory of most Chinese enterprises continued to decline, but the inventory demand of some enterprises still existed, and continued to lower the quotation for shipment. with the National Day approaching, the number of on-site transport vehicles is gradually reduced, and some traders gradually withdraw from the market, but during the holidays, most production enterprises operate stably, and Chinese enterprises may accumulate inventory. At present, there is no new maintenance device in the field, the early parking and negative reduction devices are restored one after another, the start of the Chinese market is on the high side, and the overall supply in China is steadily increasing. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field. Demand: the overall change in the start of the terminal downstream products is small, and the start of the MTO industry still maintains a high level. At present, the raw material inventory of downstream enterprises remains high, coupled with the fact that downstream and traders are gradually entering the holiday, the overall replenishment enthusiasm is general, in the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the load changes of the olefin plant after the festival and the repair of downstream profits. At present, the cost support is general, the supply side is steadily increasing, the rigid demand procurement under the high inventory downstream, the market atmosphere shows a slight stalemate, the market operators' mentality is more wait-and-see, and the short-term methanol market price or low shock is expected. In the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro policy, crude oil, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.