Daily Review of Urea: No good market, no price drop has exceeded 100 (September 27)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on September 27 was 2,537.55, down 18.95 from yesterday, down 0.74% month-on-month, and down 0.62% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract is 2150, the highest price is 2156, the lowest price is 2123, the settlement price is 2137, and the closing price is 2136. The closing price is down 4.4% compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month decline is 0.19%. The daily fluctuation range is 2123-2156, and the spread is 33; the 01 contract has reduced its position by 1794 lots today, and so far, the position is 306316 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices continue to consolidate downward. Some companies have lowered their ex-factory quotations for orders received during the National Day holiday, but the actual trading atmosphere is general.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China fell to 2,510 - 2,610 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,280 - 2,560 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,480 - 2,490 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,450 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,420 - 2,480 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,440 - 2,700 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles stabilized at 2,460 - 2,550 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,570 - 2,670 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of supply, the current supply has increased significantly, and the daily output has returned to 170,000 tons. With the subsequent release of new production capacity in Henan, Anhui and other places, the daily output is likely to exceed 180,000 tons. In terms of enterprises, some companies are still lowering their factory quotations to attract orders for the National Day holiday, but the overall reduction is small. In terms of demand, the market is currently in need of reducing, and the autumn fertilizer production of compound fertilizer companies has also come to an end, and the overall market trading atmosphere is still sluggish. In terms of exports, exports are temporarily flat, and international prices have basically no impact on China's price changes. In addition, the time of legal inspection remains an uncertain factor.

On the whole, there is still some room for decline in China's urea market, and it is expected that the urea market price will still be mainly downward in the short term.