PVC: Futures prices broke through three times and fell deeply. Technology showed a short trend, and the spot market continued to decline.

89,116

September 26, 2023, 4:57 PM

PVC futures analysis: September 26th V2401 contract opening price: 6241, highest price: 6256, lowest price: 6163, position: 834047, settlement price: 6212, yesterday settlement: 6271, down: 59, daily trading volume: 998985 lots, precipitated capital: 3.604 billion, capital outflow: 1.49 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 9.25	Price 9.26	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	6060-6120	6000-6090	-60/-30	Send to cash remittance
East China	6090-6190	6030-6160	-60/-30	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	6150-6250	6100-6230	-50/-20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	6050-6200	6000-6150	-50/-50	Send to cash remittance
Central China	6080-6120	6070-6080	-10/-40	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	6050-6200	6000-6100	-50/-100	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices fell again weak in various regions, the market atmosphere continues to be poor. Compared with the valuation, it fell by 30-60 yuan / ton in North China, 30-60 yuan / ton in East China, 20-50 yuan / ton in South China, 50 yuan / ton in Northeast China, 10-40 yuan / ton in Central China and 50-100 yuan / ton in Southwest China. The ex-factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises held a wait-and-see attitude, and there was no obvious adjustment. Some enterprises still lowered 50 yuan / ton, and the quotations of traders in various regions of the spot market declined, especially when the afternoon price was lower than that of yesterday. After the futures price was weaker, the point price source price advantage was obvious, and the basis offer was slightly adjusted, including East China basis offer 01 contract-(50-70-130,150). South China 01 contract-(0-30-80-120), North 01 contract-(350-400-500), Southwest 01 contract-(250). On the whole, there is no advantage in today's high price, most point-to-point shipments, downstream procurement enthusiasm is OK, but part of the order price is low, the spot market trading is OK.

From the perspective of futures: PVC2401 contract night futures prices fluctuate in a narrow range, while intraday futures prices are slightly weaker. After the start of morning trading, the price continued on the basis of night trading, but then fell in late morning and fell more sharply in the afternoon, falling below 6200 and hitting a low of 6163. 2401 contracts range from 6163 to 6256 throughout the day, with a spread of 93. 01 contracts with an increase of 9538 positions and 834047 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6233, with 77713 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2401 contract prices have fallen five times since the middle track, in which the low point of last Friday's iterative weekly two-week price run three times through the support level of the lower rail of the Bollinger belt, forming an obvious downward trend. The support level of the lower rail is not effective, and the futures price continues to fall deeply. The technical level shows that the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) shows that the opening of the middle and lower rail is obvious, the upper rail turns slightly upward, and the opening of the third rail diverges. However, the trend of KD line and MACD line at the daily level is expanding. Combined with the current time node, the operating high point of the futures price will be limited only two trading days away from the National Day. In the short term, the operation of futures prices may continue the trend of low operation, and continue to observe the performance in the range of 6150-6250.

Spot aspect: & the continuous decline of the nbsp; futures price, although the low point hovering makes the atmosphere of the two cities bad, but the corresponding point price inquiry is slightly active, the product enterprises are low to hang orders, and there is a certain low point order transaction in the overall spot market. From the point of view of mentality, there is a certain acceptance psychology in the point of taking goods below 6200, that is, there is a certain enthusiasm for taking goods, but the transaction is not hot. At present, the operation of the two cities to replenish goods at low prices has become the norm. In the outer disk, prices in the international crude oil futures market were mixed, with US WTI oil prices falling below the $90 / barrel mark as the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates high, boosting the dollar and Russia announced the relaxation of oil export bans. In addition, the international market expects that the positive economic data to be released by China this week will boost market sentiment. On the whole, the spot market before the festival may continue the trend of low-level consolidation.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 9.25	Price 9.26	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	6247	6173	-74
	Average spot price in East China	6140	6095	-45
	Average spot price in South China	6200	6165	-35
	PVC2401 basis difference	-107	-78	29
	V2405 collection	6304	6233	-71
	V2401-2405 closed	-57	-60	-3
	PP2401 collection	7789	7731	-58
	Plastic L2401 collection	8258	8230	-28
	V--PP basis difference	-1542	-1558	-16
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2011	-2057	-46

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index fell 43.33, or 0.706%, to 6092.37 on Sept. 26. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6297.24, down 33.38, with a range of 0.527%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 204.87.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	9.25 warehouse orders	9.26 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	843	843	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	402	402	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	274	274	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,417	2,417	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,292	1,292	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,329	1,329	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	9,224	9,224	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,781	1,781	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	2,582	2,582	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang Jiahua	0	0	0
PVC subtotal		29,253	29,253	0
Total		29,253	29,253	0