Methanol: Futures market is volatile and weak, Chinese market is mixed

On September 26th, the methanol market price index was 2306.55, down 10.49 from yesterday and 0.45 per cent lower than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on September 25:

China CFR 280,288 US dollars / ton, down 6 US dollars / ton

European FOB 250.75-251.75 euros / ton, flat

Us FOB 77-79 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 354.5-355.5 US dollars / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2260-2300 (- 10), Northern Route: & nbsp;2070-2110 (- 10), Lunan: & nbsp;2450 (0), Henan: & nbsp;2350-2385 (0), Shanxi: 2250-2330 (0), Port: & nbsp;2445-2475 (- 30)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 200-300 (0ax 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 230-300 (- 30 Universe 40), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 110-160 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-220 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is mixed, the spot price fluctuation range is 10-50 yuan / ton, the futures market volatility is weak, the supply in the Chinese market increases steadily, the downstream stock preparation is basically over, and some downstream stocks are high. The auction of enterprises in some areas is OK. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have been lowered, with the northern line quoted at 2070-2110 yuan / ton and the low end down by 10 yuan / ton. the atmosphere in the venue continues to weaken near the holiday, and some enterprises lower their quotations for shipment, but the purchase price is more wait-and-see, and the transaction is general. Consumer market prices have been partially reduced, with southern Shandong 2450 yuan / ton, low-end stable, northern Shandong 2380-2440 yuan / ton, and low-end down 40 yuan / ton. at present, the mindset of market operators is strong, and more on-demand purchases are made downstream. Today's market bidding price is around 2380-2440 yuan / ton, including Jincheng Petrochemical methanol bidding price of 2440 yuan / ton, Lihuayi 2380 yuan / ton, Shenchi Chemical 2380 yuan / ton. The price in North China is stable and small, including 2250-2330 yuan / ton in Shanxi and 2400-2430 yuan / ton in Hebei, the low end is stable, the regional price is down, and some enterprises can make a deal at auction. Prices in southwest China remain stable, including 2490-2560 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2380-2480 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, with a stable low end. At present, the wait-and-see mood of the operators in the market is dominant, the mood of receiving goods downstream is general, and the rigid demand is mainly buying. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated downwards today. Spot trading is light, paper goods part of the unilateral choice of machine is higher than low, expected arbitrage and exchange offer more, the basis is stable. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: 9 lower deal: 2445-2475, base difference 01-13 prime price 10: 10 transaction: 2465-2490, base difference 01: 2490, base difference 01: 2505, base difference 01: 20, transaction price: 2485-2515, base difference: 01: 25, trade: 30: 11, basis: 2490-2525, basis: 01: 37: 40.

Future forecast: with the basic end of the "double section" reserve goods, the market atmosphere gradually weakens, the enthusiasm of downstream and traders to enter the market is general, the inventory of most Chinese enterprises is low, but the depot demand of some enterprises still exists. most upstream manufacturers continue to lower their quotations and shipments, and the transaction is still mediocre. Although some devices are unexpectedly stopped, the early parking and negative reduction devices continue to recover, and the start-up of the Chinese market is still at a high level. China's overall supply is steadily rising, and some units are still planned to resume in the later stage. From the demand point of view, the start of the terminal downstream products is slowly rising, and the demand is good. However, traders and downstream active replenishment before the festival, downstream enterprise inventory remains high, coupled with the recent methanol futures market shock decline, further affect the mentality of operators, downstream procurement is mainly rigid demand. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the downstream profit repair and the change of device load. At present, the cost support is weak, the pre-holiday stock has come to an end, the purchase of rigid demand under the high level of downstream inventory, the market atmosphere shows a slight stalemate, the mentality of operators in the field is more wait-and-see, and it is expected that the short-term methanol market price or low shock, in the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro policy, crude oil, coal prices and the operation of on-site units.