Daily Review of Urea: Enterprises cut prices for more profits and lower prices for poor downstream purchasing (September 26)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on September 26 was 2,556.50, down 21.36 from yesterday, down 0.83% month-on-month, and down 0.12% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract is 2127, the highest price is 2163, the lowest price is 2121, the settlement price is 2140, and the closing price is 2142. The closing price is down 24 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 1.11% month-on-month. The daily fluctuation range is 2121-2163, and the spread is 42; the 01 contract has reduced its position by 2559 lots today, and so far, it has held 308110 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices continue to be lowered and consolidated, with Shandong and Fujian regions cutting by 70 yuan/ton, with the largest reduction, and other regions stabilizing and medium-sized downward adjustments.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,540 - 2,620 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,320 - 2,590 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,480 - 2,490 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,450 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,460 - 2,560 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,450 - 2,700 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles fell to 2,460 - 2,550 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,600 - 2,680 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of supply, equipment is currently being restarted, Nissan is operating at a high level, and new production capacity is about to be put into production. The overall supply is sufficient and the supply is sufficient. On the corporate side, the National Day holiday is approaching, but some companies have received a small amount of orders. In order to ensure sufficient orders during the holiday season, most companies have lowered their factory quotations, intending to give profits and attract orders. On the demand side, downstream procurement enthusiasm is still weak, the market atmosphere is weak, and new orders are weak. In terms of costs, coal began to rise and fall back on Monday, and the upward trend in coal prices temporarily ended.

On the whole, China's urea market is currently operating in a weak position and there is no good news to stimulate it. It is expected that the urea market price will mainly decline in the short term, and it is still necessary to pay attention to the increase in Nissan.