Daily review of urea: Units are restored one after another and daily production is gradually increasing (September 25)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on September 25 was 2,577.86, down 27.73 from last Friday, down 1.06% month-on-month, and up 0.36% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract is 2212, the highest price is 2214, the lowest price is 2142, the settlement price is 2166, and the closing price is 2154. The closing price is down 60% compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 2.71% month-on-month. The daily fluctuation range is 2142-2214, and the spread is 72; The 01 contract has reduced its position by 22073 lots today, and so far, it has held 310669 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, the overall price of urea in China has been lowered. Most companies have made profits and taken orders during the National Day holiday, with the reduction range ranging from 10 to 80 yuan/ton.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China fell to 2,540 - 2,620 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,340 - 2,610 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China fell to 2,480 - 2,490 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,450 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,520 - 2,590 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,460 - 2,700 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles fell to 2,500 - 2,600 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,620 - 2,730 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of supply, maintenance equipment has been restored one after another, Nissan has been continuously improved, and market supply has become loose. As new production capacity is gradually put into production, Nissan may increase significantly. In terms of enterprises, the number of orders waiting for enterprises is gradually increasing. The National Day holiday is approaching, and most companies are making profits at low prices to collect orders. On the demand side, downstream procurement enthusiasm is still weak, mostly just in need of replenishment, and the market atmosphere is relatively weak.

On the whole, supply is currently continuing to recover, and companies are gradually transferring profits and absorbing orders. It is expected that the urea market price will mainly decline in the short term, and it is still necessary to continue to pay attention to the increase in Nissan in the later period.