Methanol: The methanol period is now simultaneously lowered and the transaction atmosphere in China is general

On September 21, the methanol market price index was 2332.95, down 15.9% from yesterday and 0.68% lower than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on September 20:

China CFR 290-298 USD / ton, down 5 USD / tonne

European FOB 248.5-249.5 euros / ton, up 6 euros / ton

Us FOB 75-77 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 349.5-350.5 US dollars / ton, down 1 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2270-2300 (0), North Route: & nbsp;2100-2210 (- 60), Lunan: & nbsp;2460 (0), Henan: & nbsp;2370-2425 (0), Shanxi: 2290-2350 (20), Port: & nbsp;2555-2585 (- 40)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 190-290 (0amp 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-310 (0max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 100-160 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-210 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is narrowly down, the spot price fluctuates 20-50 yuan / ton, the futures market fluctuates, the Chinese market price rises and falls, the downstream rigid demand replenishes mainly, the local supply shrinks, the regional price goes up, and the transaction is more smooth. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have been partially reduced, with prices on the northern line being quoted at 2100-2210 yuan per ton, and those at the low end down by 60 yuan per ton. at present, the inventory on the market continues to decrease, the quotations of production enterprises have been lowered, and the bidding situation of some enterprises is lower than expected. low-end transactions are the main, downstream to maintain rigid demand procurement. Consumer market prices are stable and small, with 2460 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2430-2450 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, with a stable low end. At present, the mindset of market operators is strong, and more on-demand purchases are made downstream, with average transactions. Prices have been raised in North China, including 2290-2350 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 20 yuan / ton in the low end, 2400-2450 yuan / ton in Hebei, and 30 yuan / ton in the lower end. Some manufacturers offer firm prices and the transaction atmosphere is general. Prices in southwest China have been partially raised, including 2490-2560 yuan per ton for Yunnan and 2380-2480 yuan per ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, with a stable low end. at present, negotiations are OK in the field, operators are generally in the mood to accept goods, and rigid demand is dominated by buying. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures fell today. Spot rigid demand negotiations; long-term arbitrage delivery, sellers cherish sales, bargain-hunting active, the current basis is stronger. The exchange of goods has continued in recent months, and the overall transaction is active throughout the day. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2530-2555, base difference 01-25Universe May 20t9. Deal: 2530-2565, base difference 01-25Maple 20position 10. Deal: 2550-2565, base difference 01-10Mather 5bomber 10 transaction: 2560-2585, base difference 01-15Universe 2010 transaction: 2605, base difference 01q30.

Future forecast: driven by the futures market in the near future, coupled with strong cost support, the Chinese market price as a whole has risen, but the stock may be prepared before the festival or at the end of this week, the rising market is difficult to sustain, and the inventory of production enterprises in the Chinese market is not under pressure for the time before. some enterprises are actively shipping before the festival, the inventory in the upstream northwest continues to decrease, the accumulation of port inventory is not obvious, and there is some support for spot prices. Boyuan, Ningxia Hening, Shanghai Huayi and other units have resumed production one after another. some units plan to restart this week, and the supply fluctuation is limited for the time being. in terms of demand, with the rise in the price of methanol in the previous period, the increase in downstream products is limited, and the overall profit performance is mediocre. Zhejiang Xingxing olefin plant restarts, other olefin units operate stably, the start-up of the olefin industry continues to be high, and the overall start-up of other downstream plants does not change. However, the enterprise inventory in some downstream areas is still high. At present, the downstream pre-festival appropriateness rigid demand replenishment, in the later stage, we need to pay attention to the downstream device load changes and downstream profit repair. At present, the cost support is temporarily stable, the fundamentals fluctuate little, the rigid demand in the lower reaches of the festival is mainly purchased, and the wait-and-see mood of the industry remains. It is expected that the short-term methanol market price may be arranged in a narrow range, and in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro policy, crude oil and coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.