Urea Daily Review: The National Day holiday is approaching, and companies are taking orders at low prices (September 21)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on September 21 was 2,612.41, down 11.36 from yesterday, down 0.43% month-on-month, and up 2.56% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract is 2241, the highest price is 2251, the lowest price is 2202, the settlement price is 2232, and the closing price is 2234. The closing price is down 18 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 0.80% month-on-month. The daily fluctuation range is 2202-2251, and the spread is 49; The 01 contract has increased its position by 2638 lots today, and so far, it has held 337922 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices have been lowered, and companies have lowered their factory quotations, intending to make a small profit to attract orders for the National Day holiday.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,560 - 2,620 yuan/ton. Prices in North China have stabilized at 2,420 - 2,670 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China fell to 2,560 - 2,570 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,450 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,600 - 2,660 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,520 - 2,730 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles fell to 2,580 - 2,620 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,620 - 2,740 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of supply, with the successive restoration of early maintenance equipment, the current daily output has gradually increased to about 166,000 tons. At the end of this month, new production capacity will continue to be released, and supply is expected to increase significantly. In terms of enterprises, there are currently many orders waiting for them. As the National Day holiday approaches, some companies intend to launch advance receipts plans, so there is no pressure on corporate sales. On the demand side, downstream compound fertilizer companies have weakened in taking goods, and they often make up appropriate amounts based on the price. In addition, urea companies are currently taking orders at low prices due to the approaching holidays, and downstream companies are more considering low prices.

On the whole, supply continues to increase at present, companies are interested in acquiring orders, and downstream purchases are cautious. It is expected that market prices will be lowered and consolidated in a short period of time. In the later period, we still need to continue to pay attention to Nissan's increase.