Methanol: Futures market fluctuated downward, market atmosphere declined

On September 20th, the market price index of methanol was 2346.93, which was 0.69 lower than that of yesterday and 0.03% lower than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on September 19th:

China CFR 295-303 US dollars / ton, up 2 US dollars / ton

European FOB 242.5-244.5 euros / ton, up 0.25 euros / ton

Us FOB 75-77 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR 350.5-351.5 US dollars / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2270-2300 (0), North Route: & nbsp;2160-2210 (0), Lunan: & nbsp;2460 (0), Henan: & nbsp;2380-2445 (30), Shanxi: 2270-2410 (30), Port: & nbsp;2595-2620 (- 15)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 190-290 (0amp 10), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-310 (0amp 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 100-160 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-210 (- 30gammer 30)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is arranged in a narrow range, the spot quotation fluctuates 10-50 yuan / ton, the futures market is consolidated after falling, the quotation in some parts of the Chinese market is lowered, and the rigid demand downstream is mainly replenished before the festival, and some transactions are smooth. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are mixed, and the northern line quotes 2160-2210 yuan / ton, which is stable at the low end. at present, the inventory is running low in the field, which has a certain support for the price. the bidding situation of some enterprises is lower than expected, and the transaction price is low. transactions are dominated by rigid demand. Consumer market prices are stable and small, with 2460 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2430-2460 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, with a stable low end. At present, the mindset of market operators is strong, and more on-demand purchases are made downstream, with average transactions. Prices have been raised in North China, including 2270-2410 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 30 yuan / ton in the low end, 2430-2450 yuan / ton in Hebei, and 80 yuan / ton in the low end. The price in southwest China has been partially raised, of which Yungui quotation is 2490-2560 yuan / ton, low-end price is 50 yuan / ton, Sichuan-Chongqing price is 2380-2500 yuan / ton, and the low end is stable. at present, it is OK to negotiate in the field, the mood of operators to accept goods is general, and rigid demand is mainly buying. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures fell and fluctuated today. Spot rigid demand negotiations, paper arbitrage mainly, unilateral low pick-up is active, the basis is slightly stronger, the idea of replacement continues. The overall transaction is active throughout the day. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2555-2585, base difference 01-35 Maximus 30 position 9 transaction: 2560-2595, base difference 01-30 Maple 25 position 10 transaction price: 2575-2585, base difference 01-13 Melody 10 transaction 10 transaction: 2590-2625, basis difference 01-2625 5cm 13.

In the future, it is predicted that the coal price is running strongly in the near future, the cost is well supported, and the Chinese market starts to maintain a high level, but there is no pressure on the inventory of production enterprises for the time being, some enterprises have inventory operation before the festival, and the inventory of production enterprises has been reduced during the cycle. at present, inventory is still running at a low level, and there is some support for spot prices. Boyuan, Yantai Wanhua, Shanghai Huayi and other devices have resumed production one after another. Ningxia Heming, Shenglong Chemical and other plans to restart start-up this week, with a small increase in supply expectations. On the demand side, with the rise in the price of methanol in the earlier period, the increase in downstream products is limited, and the overall profit performance is poor. The overall start-up of the downstream of the terminal continues to improve slowly, the early maintenance plant resumes one after another, Zhejiang Xingxing olefin plant restart drives the start-up of the olefin industry to a high level, and the external production of methanol is expected to increase. However, the enterprise inventory in some downstream areas is still high. At present, the downstream pre-festival appropriateness rigid demand replenishment, in the later stage, we need to pay attention to the downstream device load changes and downstream profit repair. At present, the cost is temporarily stable, both the supply side and the demand side are expected to increase, the fluctuation of the futures market affects the market trend, the market operators' wait-and-see mood still exists, and it is expected that the methanol market price or interval will be sorted out in the short term. in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro policy, crude oil and coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.