Daily Review of Urea: Units resume one after another and price upward is blocked (September 20)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on September 20 was 2,623.77, down 5.45 from yesterday, down 0.21% month-on-month, and up 2.87% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract is 2280, the highest price is 2286, the lowest price is 2225, the settlement price is 2252, and the closing price is 2252. The closing price is down 19 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 0.84% month-on-month. The daily fluctuation range is 2225-2286, and the spread is 61; the 01 contract has increased its positions today by 8661 lots, and so far, it has held 335284 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, the price of China's urea market is relatively stable. Most companies 'ex-factory quotations today are stable compared with the previous working day. Some companies are currently suspending quotations and implementing advance orders.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,560 - 2,620 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,420 - 2,670 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,600 - 2,610 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,450 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,630 - 2,680 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,540 - 2,730 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles fell to 2,610 - 2,630 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,640 - 2,760 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of supply, preliminary maintenance equipment has been restarted one after another, Nissan is gradually recovering, and spot supply has increased steadily. Over time, supply may become loose. In terms of enterprises, there are currently many orders waiting for them, and there is no pressure on production and sales. In addition, some enterprises have limited inventory and are currently shipping orders in limited quantities. On the demand side, downstream industry and agriculture follow up in small amounts on demand, and some traders reserve in small amounts. The demand-side trading atmosphere is relatively dull.

On the whole, the supply side is currently recovering one after another, and the upward trend of prices is blocked. In addition, the current on-site purchasing mentality is relatively cautious and the transaction volume is relatively limited. It is expected that the market will maintain a stable and minor consolidation operation in a short period of time. Specific attention still needs to be paid to the changes in the supply and demand relationship.