Gasoline: The price increase is about to materialize, and the Chinese market is pushing up slightly

Gasoline: the price limit increase is about to be realized, and the Chinese market pushes up slightly.

International crude oil closed

 

Date	Market	Specifications	Close (US dollars / barrel)	Rise and fall
20230918	America	WTI	91.48	0.71
20230918	The United Kingdom	Brent	94.43	0.5

 

Gasoline price index

On September 19th, China's gasoline price index rose 34.37, or 0.36%, to 9495.26, while China's gasoline price index rose 31.72, or 0.32%, to 9815.62. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index both rose, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 320.36.

 

Gasoline market analysis:

Today, the wholesale price of gasoline in China has been raised by 40-100 yuan per ton as a whole. The ex-factory price of georefining has been raised by a narrow range, of which gasoline prices in Shandong, North China, Central China, East China and Northwest China have increased by 20-50 yuan per ton, and gasoline prices in Northeast China have remained stable for the time being. At present, the turnover in China's gasoline market is average, the market is bullish, and refineries are actively pushing prices; in the middle and lower reaches, rigid demand for replenishment but a wait-and-see mentality still exists, curbing the increase. On the whole, the high cost level of superimposed trading is OK, and the market has risen slightly.

September 19 main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 9.18	Price 9.19	Rise and fall
North China region	92#	9130-9800	9150-9800	20/0
	95#	9220-10160	9350-10160	130/0
South China	92#	9300-9850	9400-9900	100/50
	95#	9550-10150	9600-10200	50/50
Central China	92#	9300-9600	9350-9650	50/50
	95#	9470-9850	9520-9900	50/50
East China region	92#	9200-9600	9240-9650	40/50
	95#	9340-9900	9380-9950	40/50
Northwestern region	92#	9250-10134	9300-10134	50/0
	95#	9450-10910	9550-10910	100/0
Southwest China	92#	9500-9780	9500-9830	0/50
	95#	9730-10230	9730-10280	0/50
Northeast China	92#	9180-9880	9250-9880	70/0
	95#	9550-10400	9550-10400	50/0

 

The ex-factory price of gasoline refinery on September 19 (RMB / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 9.18	Price 9.19	Rise and fall
Shandong area	92#	8850-9200	8900-9240	50/40
	95#	9000-9350	9060-9390	60/40
North China region	92#	8970-9150	8970-9180	0/30
	95#	9070-9200	9070-9230	0/30
Central China	92#	9280-9280	9310-9310	30/30
	95#	9480-9480	9510-9510	30/30
East China region	92#	8940-9060	8960-9100	20/40
	95#	9060-9230	9080-9270	20/40
Northwestern region	92#	9200-9300	9200-9350	0/50
	95#	9350-9500	9350-9550	0/50
Northeast China	92#	9200-9200	9200-9200	0/0
	95#	9400-9400	9400-9400	0/0

 

Future forecast

From the perspective of international crude oil, OPEC+ production reduction is still in the upper hand, superimposed shale oil production continues to decline, supply-side tight news continues to ferment, and China has introduced economic policies one after another, investors are optimistic about the international oil market. Retail price limit increase is about to be realized, the rate of increase is currently close to 400 yuan / ton, the news side is good guidance. The pre-holiday replenishment demand is favorable to support the superimposed cost side, and the quotations of the main units and local refineries are rising, but the high price makes the downstream resistance psychology is not small. Generally speaking, there is a slight stalemate in market trading, and the operation of hidden benefits can not be ruled out. Therefore, it is expected that China's gasoline market may continue to rise slightly in the short term.

 

 

Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Since the price adjustment of oil products in China on August 23, 2023, oil prices in the international market have fluctuated. According to the current price mechanism of oil products in China, the average price in the first 10 working days on September 6 is less than 50 yuan per ton compared with the average price in the first 10 working days on August 23. The price of gasoline and diesel will not be adjusted this time, and the unadjusted amount will be added or offset in the next price adjustment. The following table shows the results of the price adjustment by the National Development and Reform Commission on August 23, 2023, and the next price adjustment is expected to be September 20.

 

Schedule

Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Unit: yuan / ton

	I. areas with one province and one price
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Beijing	9765	8725
Tianjin	9730	8690
Hebei Province	9730	8690
Shanxi province	9800	8745
Liaoning province	9730	8690
Jilin Province	9730	8690
Heilongjiang province	9730	8690
Shanghai	9745	8695
Jiangsu Province	9785	8730
Zhejiang Province	9785	8745
Anhui province	9780	8740
Fujian Province	9805	8755
Jiangxi province	9785	8750
Shandong province	9740	8700
Hubei province	9755	8715
Hunan Province	9795	8775
Henan province	9750	8710
Hainan province	9875	8825
Chongqing	9945	8900
Guangdong province	9810	8760
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region	9875	8825
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region	9735	8690
Gansu province	9715	8710
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region	9510	8585
II. Areas with one province and one price will not be implemented for the time being
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Hohhot	9745	8705
Chengdu city	9950	8925
Guiyang city	9910	8850
Kunming City	9940	8880
Xi'an city	9715	8700
Xining City	9695	8735

                                                                

Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.

2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIA and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.

3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.

4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 9350 yuan and 8300 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.