Methanol: The methanol period is now running strongly and there is a strong feeling of stocking up before the holiday

On September 19th, the methanol market price index was 2346.49, up 28.26 from yesterday, up 1.22% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on September 18:

China CFR 293-302 US dollars / ton, up 5 US dollars / ton

European FOB 241.25-243.25 euros / ton, up 10.50 euros / ton

Us FOB 76-78 cents per gallon, up 2 cents per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR 242.25-244.25 US dollars / ton, up 1 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2270-2300 (70), Northern Route: & nbsp;2160-2210 (0), Lunan: & nbsp;2460 (100), Henan: & nbsp;2380-2445 (30), Shanxi: 2240-2315 (0), Port: & nbsp;2610-2620 (85)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 170-280 (0ax 0), South Line-North Shandong 230-310 (- 10max 10), Shanxi-North Shandong 100-160 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 190-240 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market remains strong, the spot quotation fluctuates by 20-110 yuan / ton, the futures market fluctuates at a high level, and the mood of stock preparation before the festival is strong. Traders in the Chinese market and downstream actively replenish the goods. The ex-factory prices and trade transfer prices of enterprises in some areas continue to rise, and the overall transaction atmosphere is OK. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have been raised, the northern line quotation is 2160-2210 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, Guanzhong price is 2270-2300 yuan / ton, and the low end is up to 70 yuan / ton. at present, the inventory in the field is running low, which has a certain support for prices. there is a certain demand for inventory in the lower reaches of the holiday, the mood of receiving goods has improved, and the transaction is OK. The market price of consumer land has risen, with 2460 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 100 yuan / ton in the low end, 2430-2480 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, and 20 yuan / ton in the lower end. Today's market bidding price is around 2440-2480 yuan / ton, including 2480 yuan / ton for methanol from Jincheng Petrochemical, 2450 yuan / ton for Shenchi Chemical Industry and 2440 yuan / ton for Lihuayi. Prices in North China are stable and small, of which Shanxi is quoted at 2240-2315 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, Hebei is quoted at 2350-2470 yuan / ton, and the low end is reduced by 20 yuan / ton, the replenishment mood is strong, and the market transaction atmosphere is OK. Prices in southwest China have been partially lowered, of which Yungui quotation is 2440-2510 yuan / ton, low-end price is stable, Sichuan-Chongqing price is 2380-2500 yuan / ton, and the low-end price is reduced by 30 yuan / ton. at present, it is OK to negotiate in the field, the mood of receiving goods is general, and the rigid demand is mainly buying. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: today, methanol futures are high and volatile. Spot and recent months rigid demand replenishment, long-term unilateral high shipments are active, arbitrage to receive goods, basis to maintain stability, exchange ideas continue. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot / 9: 2610-2620, basis 01-40 Maximus 35, deal: 2595-2625, basis 01-35 Melissa: 2625-2630, basis 01-15: 10: 2635-2665, base difference 01-15: 3: 5.

Future forecast; cost: the coal price is strong, the cost is supported, the recent coal mine safety inspection is frequent, some coal mines stop production rectification, the coal supply may be further tightened, the short-term market price is stable and upward. On the supply side: at present, the construction of the Chinese market continues to be high, but there is no pressure on the inventory of production enterprises for the time being. as the National Day is approaching, some production enterprises need to store in front of the festival, and they can accept the price downstream and begin to prepare goods one after another. coupled with the high level of futures, trading sentiment in the Chinese market is OK, Boyuan, Yantai Wanhua, Lutianhua and other devices have been restored one after another, and Ningxia and Ning, Shenglong Chemical and other plans to restart this week. A small increase in supply is expected. On the demand side: as the temperature enters the downward channel, the overall start-up of the terminal downstream continues to rise slowly, Zhejiang Xingxing olefin MTO restarts to boost market sentiment, the demand surface olefin unit load increases obviously, methanol external production increases, other downstream pre-maintenance devices resume work one after another, and the demand is pulled up, but the enterprise inventory in some downstream areas is still high, and the downstream pre-festival appropriateness rigid demand replenishment. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the load change of the downstream device and the downstream profit repair. At present, the cost side is good to support, and both the supply side and the demand side are expected to increase. At present, it is entering the pre-festival centralized stock cycle, the market sentiment is obviously boosted, and the short-term methanol market price or shock is expected to be strong. In the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro policy, crude oil, coal prices, the operation of on-site equipment and the impact of futures fluctuations on the market.