Methanol: The strong futures market pulled up and the market trading atmosphere was still good

On September 18, the methanol market price index was 2318.23, up 14.33 from the previous working day and 0.62% higher than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on September 15:

China CFR 288-295 US dollars / ton, up 3 US dollars / ton

European FOB 241.25-243.25 euros / ton, up 10.50 euros / ton

Us FOB 74-76 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 350.5-351.5 US dollars / ton, up 11 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200-2260 (0), North Route: & nbsp;2160-2210 (30), Lunan: & nbsp;2360 (10), Henan: & nbsp;2350-2400 (40), Shanxi: 2240-2315 (10), Port: & nbsp;2525-2540 (35)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 170-280 (- 10max 0), South Line-North Shandong 240-300 (0max 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 100-160 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 190-240 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market continues to rise, the futures market strongly pulls up, the spot quotation rises with the market, some enterprises in the Chinese market offer firm, the negotiation is active, the downstream rigid demand replenishment is mainly, the transaction atmosphere is OK. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been raised narrowly, with 2160-2210 yuan / ton on the north line and 30 yuan / ton on the low end, of which Shaanxi Changqing methanol has been raised by 50 yuan / ton this week: 2300 yuan / ton for large single price and 2310 yuan / ton for small single quotation. The 600000-ton methanol plant in the plant is in normal operation. At present, the on-site inventory remains low, and due to the influence of the market, the prices of some enterprises have been raised. There is a certain demand for stock in the lower reaches of the holiday, and the transaction is OK. The market price of consumer land has risen, with 2360 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 10 yuan / ton in the low end, 2410-2420 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, and 40 yuan / ton in the lower end. At present, the mindset of those in the market is strong, more on-demand purchases downstream, and the market trading atmosphere is OK. Prices in North China have been raised, including 2240-2315 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 10 yuan / ton in the low end, 2370-2420 yuan / ton in Hebei, and 60 yuan / ton in the low end. Prices in southwest China remain stable, including 2440-2510 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2410-2500 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, with a stable low end. At present, negotiations are OK in the field, the mood of operators to receive goods is general, and the rigid demand is mainly buying. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: today, methanol futures rose after high consolidation. Spot rigid demand negotiations, paper orders when high shipments are active, arbitrage is dominant, and the basis becomes weaker. The overall transaction volume is small. Taicang main port transaction price: spot / 9: 2525-2580, base difference 01-35 Maximus 30 position 9 transaction: 2535-2595, base difference 01-35 Melissa 25 position 10 transaction: 2600-2615, base difference 01-12 Melody 10 transaction 10 transaction: 2550-2630, basis difference 01-2630 5cm 15.

Future forecast The recent strong operation of coal prices, cost support is OK, inventory in most parts of China has declined narrowly, but the situation of shipments in Northwest China is general, approaching the National Day, the demand of some production enterprises in front of the storage section, at present, the lower reaches of the price is acceptable, began to stock operations, coupled with the futures market strong pull up, the Chinese market atmosphere has improved, although the port inventory performance continues to accumulate. However, the price is slightly stronger under the expected demand, Boyuan, Yantai Wanhua, Lutianhua and other devices have been restored one after another, and the overall supply in China is relatively abundant. On the demand side, the overall start-up of the downstream of the terminal continues to rise slowly, the load of MTO, acetic acid and MTBE increases significantly, Zhejiang Xingxing olefin plant has been restarted, Lihuayi and Anhui Huayi store and start-up plan, downstream demand has increased steadily, methanol procurement has increased. However, part of the inventory of downstream enterprises is still on the high side. At present, the downstream is still dominated by rigid demand purchasing. In the later stage, it is necessary to pay attention to the load changes of downstream devices and downstream profit repair. At present, the cost tends to increase, the supply side is relatively abundant, and there is a certain reserve demand in the lower reaches before the Eleventh Section, but due to the influence of high inventory, the purchasing enthusiasm is general, and the operators in the market still have a wait-and-see mood for the future. It is expected that the short-term methanol market price or interval consolidation, in the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro policy, crude oil, coal prices, on-site plant operation and futures fluctuations on the market.