[Ethanol Daily Review]: China's ethanol market trends on September 18

85,649

September 18, 2023, 4:28 PM

The price index of general-grade ethanol was 6478.25 on September 18th, up from + 36.3on the previous working day.

The price of ethanol in China has risen significantly. Hot spots on September 18: first, Henan prices rose 160-200 yuan / ton over the weekend and 200 yuan / ton without water. Second, the price in East China rose by 50 yuan / ton over the weekend. Third, Heilongjiang in Northeast China rose 50% over the weekend, and Jilin rose 100 yuan / ton today. Fourth, the bidding price of ethyl acetate has dropped. Fifth, the freight rate is moving steadily. Sixth, the high price of coal-based ethanol. 7. The price of ddgs is weak.

Specifically, the northeast region rose, downstream pre-festival stock is obvious, enterprise shipments are limited, quotations rise, individual enterprises in Heilongjiang put in materials. After the increase of purchase volume in Henan area, the enterprise quotation rose continuously and the order was delivered. The stock of chemical industry in East China is obvious, the spot stock is limited, and the price is rising. The transaction price of coal-based ethanol is better, and the premium is high. The main price rose 50 yuan / ton fuel ethanol order delivery, the enterprise pre-festival stock is obvious. The purchase price of geosynthetics fluctuates at a high level. Northeast enterprise Jilin market price 6700-6800 yuan / ton, Jilin no water 7350-7600 yuan / ton. The general grade of Heilongjiang market is 6500-6700 yuan / ton, and the Heilongjiang anhydrous market is 7200-7350 yuan / ton. The northeast closing position is about 6900-6950 yuan / ton. The superior enterprises in Central China offer 7000-7050 yuan / ton, and the price of no water is 7850 yuan / ton. The price of ethanol in East China is 6950-7000 yuan / ton. The price of anhydrous ethanol is 7750-7850 yuan / ton, and the general price in southern Jiangsu is 7050-7150 yuan / ton. Cassava ethanol & nbsp;7200-7350 yuan / ton in Guangxi, South China.

& nbsp; unit: yuan / ton

Area	Specifications	Market	2023/9/18	2023/9/15	Rise and fall
South China	Cassava is anhydrous	Guangxi	7850-7950	7850-7950	0/0
	Molasses 95%	Guangxi	-	-	-
	Cassava 95%	Guangxi	7200-7350	7200-7350	0/0
North China	Superior grade	Hebei	-	-	-
North China	No water	Hebei	7650-7700	7650-7700	0/0
Northeast China	General level	Jilin	6700-6800	6600-6700	+100/+100
	No water	Jilin	7350-7600	7250-7550	+100/+50
	General level	Jinzhou	6900-6950	6850-6950	0/0
	General level	Heilongjiang Province	6500-6700	6500-6650	0/+50
East China	General level	Anhui Province	7100-7150	7000-7150	+100/0
	No water	Anhui Province	7750-7850	7550-7650	+200/+200
	No water	Shandong	7750-7850	7600-7650	+250/+200
	General level	Shandong	6950-7000	6850-6900	+100/+100
	Superior grade	Shandong	7100-7300	6950-7150	+150/+150
	Send it to other places without water.	Shandong	7750-7900	7650-7800	+100/+100
	General level	Northern Jiangsu	6950-7000	6900-6950	+50/+50
	No water	Northern Jiangsu	7750-7850	7650-7750	+100/+100
	General level	Southern Jiangsu	7050-7150	7050-7150	0/0
Central China	Superior grade	Henan	7000-7050	6840-6850	+160/+200
Central China	No water	Henan	7850-7850	7650-7700	+200/+150

Raw materials / by-products and downstream

Unit: yuan / ton, US dollar / ton

Area	Market	Raw materials / by-products	2023/9/18	Remarks
Northeast China	Jilin	Corn	2750-2800
Northeast China	Jilin	DDGS	2870-2900
Northeast China	Heilongjiang Province	Corn	2650-2700	Less transactions at a low price
Northeast China	Heilongjiang Province	DDGS	2700-2900	High fat
Central China	Henan	Corn	2920-2925
Central China	Henan	DDGS	2790
Thailand		Dried cassava	280-285
Shandong		Ethyl acetate	7500-7510	Acceptance leaves the factory
Jiangsu Province		Ethyl acetate	7650-7850
South China		Ethyl acetate	7800-7900

Future forecast: ethanol prices in China are expected to remain strong in the short term. Edible ethanol start-up volume increased, enterprises have no obvious inventory, downstream pre-festival stock situation exists, enterprise order delivery, short-term price high shock. Some enterprises in Henan region order delivery, home is stable, high price enterprises may have the possibility of a pullback. Fuel ethanol downstream pre-festival stock is obvious, large factories limited shipments, the market to goods is now tense, high prices shock.

Raw materials: corn ethanol: price arrangement, corn prices in central China / Shandong and other areas, negative corn price trend. At present, the supply of ddgs is increasing, the demand is limited, and prices continue to weaken. Cassava dry aspect: enterprise rigid demand procurement, Thailand is willing to raise the price is obvious, cassava dry inventory sales are expected short-term cassava dry price high finishing.

Supply: northeast start: Dongning shutdown, Baoquanling shutdown, Cofco Zhaodong normal, Wanli installation normal, Hongzhan 4 factory installations normal, Heilongjiang Shenglong feeding, Zhongke Green production, Fuyu Huitong shutdown; Fukang production, Tianyu production, Shuntong shutdown, Dongfeng Huafang downtime, Xintianlong normal, Liniu downtime. East China Flower Hall normal, Guannan shutdown, Jin Changlin shutdown, Guohua shutdown, Changxing production, Longhe production, Romat production, sul shutdown, Fulaichun continued shutdown, Maibo Huihui shutdown, MINUSTAH production. The production of Mengzhou plant in Henan province has been reduced. Jufeng shuts down. Chifeng Ruiyang production, Zalantun production. Jilin fuel is normal, Guotou Tieling production. Tianguan Nanyang production. Guotou Jidong production.

Demand: downstream chemical rigid demand procurement. Liquor order purchase.

Logistics: logistics price is stable.

Equipment maintenance table of Chinese ethanol enterprises

Enterprise name	Production capacity (10,000 tons / year)	Maintenance involves production capacity	Maintenance start time	Remarks
Heilongjiang Hongzhan (Jixian)	60	60	April fifteenth	Start up on May 6th
Jilin Fukang	50	4	March 28th
Heilongjiang Hexing grain and oil	3	3	Late March
Inner Mongolia Shuntong	12	12	Stop the machine
Heilongjiang Zhongke Green	10	10	Stop the machine
Fulaichun, Shandong Province	20	20	Stop the machine
Jiangsu Dongcheng	15	15	Stop the machine
Guannan COVID-19, Lianyungang	5	5	Stop the machine
Jiangsu Haiyan	15	15	Start up in the middle of May
Jiangsu Maibo remittance	8	8	Stop feeding at the beginning of April
Shuyang Guohua	5	5	Resume downtime in mid-August around July 10
Anhui COFCO	75	30	The material has been put in on April 20th.
Anhui Wuhechun	8	8	Stop the machine
Jilin Xintianlong	30	30	Shut down on May 5, start on the 17th, reduce production on the 21st, full production on July 15th.
Heilongjiang Sheng long	15	15	Shut down on April 27-start on June 5, put in material from July 19 to September 16
Inner Mongolia Liniu	10	10	Stop the machine
Hanyong, Mengzhou, Henan Province	30	30	One-line production
Houyuan, Mengzhou, Henan Province	50	50	Open on May 21
Jilin Dongfeng Hua Grain	10	10	Stop feeding on April 17th
National Investment Helen	30	30	April 12-May 24	Fuel fuel
Guotou Jidong	30	30	April 3rd	Fuel fuel
Zhenjiang Changxing	10	10	All machines were shut down on May 16, June 5, July 19, August 28.
Jin Changlin in Lianyungang	5	5	Shutdown on May 18, production on August 7, shutdown around August 15.
Hongzhang, ha.	60	30	Stop from May 27th to July 20th
Fukang	50	50	Feed from August 10 to August 31
Tianyu	15	15	Stop feeding on July 21 and feed on August 13
Cofco Zhaodong	30	10	Stop feeding on June 5-June 20, July 15 stop fuel production on July 31, feed on August 15
Chifeng Ruiyang	8	8	Shut down on June 10th and feed on July 4th.
Hongzhan Tahiko	30	30	Stop from June 20th to July 5th
Wanli Runda	60	60	Shutdown on July 15th and feeding on July 31st
Lianyungang Longhe River	10	10	The device stopped feeding on July 3, August 21.
Jiangsu sul alcohol	12	12	The device was shut down on July 3
Liaoyuan giant peak	50	50	Production stopped on July 4th and August 1st.
Zalantun	10	10	The product will be released around July 6th.
Shandong Yingxuan	20	20	Shut down at the end of June and put in material on July 25.
Jilin fuel	70	70	The two lines will be inspected from 31 July to 20 August.
Guotou Tieling	30	30	The machine was shut down on July 31 for maintenance and put in the material on August 10.
Henan Nanyang Tianguan	30	30	August 15 put into production
Romet.	5	5	August 18 put into production
Fuyu Huihai	5	5	Downtime in mid-August
China Colleen	10	10	Feeding starts on August 22nd
Guotou Jidong	30	30	Feed in early September