Methanol: The market is currently in a stalemate and the market sentiment has improved slightly

On Sept. 15, the methanol market price index was 2304.65, up 5.4% from yesterday and 0.23% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on September 14:

China CFR 285-295 US dollars / ton, up 5 US dollars / ton

European FOB 230.75-232.75 euros / ton, up 0.25 euros / ton

Us FOB 74-76 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR 339.5-340.5 US dollars / ton, up 2.50 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200-2260 (0), North Route: & nbsp;2130-2150 (30), Lunan: & nbsp;2350 (- 30), Henan: & nbsp;2310-2335 (0), Shanxi: 2230-2250 (10), Port: & nbsp;2490-2530 (0)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 180-280 (0ax 0), South Line-North Shandong 240-300 (20max 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 100-160 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 190-240 (0max 5)

Spot market: today, methanol market prices are high, futures prices rebounded slightly after the volatility fell, the overall atmosphere in the Chinese market improved slightly, some enterprises made shipments at a high price, and traded mainly through bargain-hunting. Specifically, the market inventory in the main producing areas remains low, which has a certain support for the price. The northern line quotes 2130-2150 yuan / ton, and the low end increases 30 yuan / ton. Today, the bidding prices of Yulin Yankuang, Rongxin and other enterprises rose slightly. Yulin Yankuang's starting price increased 20 yuan / ton to 2120 yuan / ton, the quantity was 4000 tons, and the turnover was 3600 tons. Inner Mongolia Rongxin starting auction price increased by 30 yuan / ton to 2130 yuan / ton factory cash exchange, the quantity of 3000 tons, all the deal, the auction deal is OK. Consumer market prices are mixed, with 2350 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 30 yuan / ton in the low end, 2370-2400 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, and 20 yuan / ton in the lower end. At present, the mindset of market operators is cautious, more on-demand purchases downstream, and the market trading atmosphere is limited. Today's market bidding price is around 2380-2400 yuan / ton, including 2380 yuan / ton for Lihuayi methanol and 2400 yuan / ton for Shenchi chemical industry. Prices in North China are stable and small, of which Shanxi is quoted at 2230-2250 yuan / ton, the low end is raised by 10 yuan / ton, and Hebei is quoted at 2310-2360 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the wait-and-see mood still exists, and the transaction is general. Prices in southwest China remain stable, including 2440-2490 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2410-2500 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, with a stable low end. At present, negotiations are OK in the field, the mood of operators to receive goods is general, and the rigid demand is mainly buying. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures rebounded slightly after falling today. Spot offers are limited; long-term unilateral high selling and low suction, arbitrage buying active, afternoon basis strong; frequent replacements in recent months. The overall transaction throughout the day is not bad. Taicang main port transaction price: spot / 9: 2525-2540, basis 01-40: 9 transaction: 2510-2565, base difference 01-32 Mobil 25 transaction 10 transaction: 2525-2555, base difference 01-17 ram 14 cross 10 transaction: 2545-2595, basis difference 01-2595, base difference 01-2595, base difference 01-24, base difference 01-22, base difference 01-20, base difference 01-24, margin 01-20, margin 01-32, margin 01-22, margin 01-17.

Future forecast: on the supply side: there has been equipment overhaul and restart in the Chinese market recently, the overall supply has not been significantly reduced, and there is a demand for storage in front of some production enterprises, but downstream and traders still have resistance to the high-priced source of goods. the wait-and-see mentality of the operators is obvious, the overall shipping situation of Chinese enterprises is poor, low-end transactions are the main, and the port inventory is accumulated substantially in the week. Lutianhua, Shandong Shengfa, Yangmei Fengxi and other devices are planned to resume in the near future, and the supply side may be expected to increase. Demand: as the hot weather gradually fades, methanol enters the traditional consumption peak season, and the traditional downstream starts up slowly. Lihuayi and Anhui Huayi plan to start driving in the near future, but part of the inventory of downstream enterprises is still on the high side. the enthusiasm of downstream and traders to enter the market to replenish goods is not high, and there is no obvious volume on the short-term demand side for the time being. in the later stage, we need to pay attention to the load changes of downstream devices and the repair of downstream profits. At present, the cost side is supported, the fundamentals fluctuate little, and the demand surface increases slowly, but the downstream inventory is high, the volume of terminal demand is temporarily limited, and the operators in the field have a strong wait-and-see mood for the future. It is expected that the short-term methanol market price or shock trend, in the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro policy, crude oil, coal prices, plant operation and downstream demand follow-up.