Methanol: Futures market fluctuated and rebounded. China's trading atmosphere is moderate

On September 14, the methanol market price index was 2299.25, down 4.36 from yesterday, down 0.19% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on September 13:

China's CFR is US $280,290 / ton, down US $2 / ton.

European FOB 230.5-232.5 euros / ton, up 2.50 euros / ton

Us FOB 75-77 cents per gallon, flat

CFR in Southeast Asia rose 7.75 to US $337-338 per ton. & nbsp;                        

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200-2260 (0), North Line: 2100-2130 (0), Lunan: 2380 (- 20), Henan: 2310-2330 (- 10), Shanxi: 2220-2290 (- 20), Port: 2490-2530 (5)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 180-280 (0ax 10), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 220-300 (- 10max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 100-160 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 190-235 (0max 5)

Spot market: today, methanol market prices are arranged in a narrow range, futures market volatility rebounds, the overall atmosphere in the Chinese market is still weak, downstream and traders are generally in the mood to receive goods, most of the people in the market hold a wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction is general. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are adjusted in a narrow range, of which the northern line quotes 2100-2130 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the current inventory pressure on the market is not great, the enthusiasm of downstream entering the market to replenish goods is not high, and some manufacturers lower their quotations for shipment, and the transaction atmosphere is slightly general. The market price of consumer land has fallen, with 2380 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 20 yuan / ton in the low end, 2350-2370 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, and 20 yuan / ton in the lower end. At present, the mindset of market operators is cautious, more on-demand purchases downstream, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is limited. Prices in North China have been partially reduced, including 2220-2290 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 20 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2310-2360 yuan / ton in Hebei, which is stable at the low end. The price in southwest China has been partially raised, of which Yungui quotation is 2440-2490 yuan / ton, low-end price is 30 yuan / ton, Sichuan-Chongqing price is 2410-2500 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the current market continues smoothly, the negotiations are flat in the market, and the purchase rigid demand in the downstream of the terminal is mainly. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures rose after consolidation today. Spot rigid demand negotiations; long-term unilateral high shipments, arbitrage buying mainly, the basis is stable and strong; frequent replacements in recent months. The whole-day deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2490-2525, basis 01-42Mame37Port9. Transaction: 2500-2530, basis 01-42Mobility 40Trent9 transaction: 2490-2540, base difference 01-32amp 28position 10 transactions: 2525-2575, basis difference 01cm 3Universe 10.

Forecast in the future: coal prices have risen steadily in the near future, and cost support is temporarily stable. With the return of early maintenance devices such as Yulin Kaiyue, Inner Mongolia Cathay Pacific, Shaanxi Black Cat, Wangcang Hezhong, etc., the spot supply of upstream factories has recovered somewhat. However, some operators still have resistance to the high-priced supply, the buying wait-and-see mentality is obvious, traders mostly choose to sell goods at profit, and the low-end transaction is the main part. Chinese production enterprises have no pressure on inventory for the time being. The performance of port inventory continues to be cumbersome, and the overall performance on the supply side is mediocre. In the later stage, some devices are still planned to restart, and the supply side may be expected to increase. On the demand side: as the high temperature gradually fades, methanol enters the traditional consumption peak season, but some stocks of downstream enterprises are still on the high side, the enthusiasm of downstream and traders to enter the market is not high, and there is no obvious volume on the short-term demand side for the time being. in the later stage, we should also pay attention to the load changes of downstream devices and the repair of downstream profits. At present, the macro side is not good for the time being, and the supply side does not fluctuate much. under the influence of "Jinjiu" and stock preparation expectations, the market has rebounded, but the mood of receiving goods downstream is still weak, the volume of terminal demand is temporarily limited, and the operators in the market have a strong wait-and-see mood for the future. It is expected that the short-term methanol market price or shock trend, we need to pay close attention to the macro policy in the later stage. Crude oil, coal prices, plant operation and downstream demand follow up.