Daily review of urea: Good supply and demand, prices are raised again (September 14)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on September 14 was 2,602.86, up 8.64 from yesterday, up 0.33% month-on-month, and up 1.65% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract is 2214, the highest price is 2243, the lowest price is 2188, the settlement price is 2220, and the closing price is 2220. The closing price is 53 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month increase is 2.45%. The daily fluctuation range is 2188-2243, and the price difference is 55; the 01 contract has reduced its position by 14308 lots today, and so far, it has held 333680 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices stopped falling and rose, and prices in some regions rose slightly. Currently, the shipment of urea plants is stable and the market is operating strongly.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,500 - 2,560 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,440 - 2,650 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China rose to 2,540 - 2,550 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,450 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,610 - 2,660 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,550 - 2,700 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,570 - 2,610 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,640 - 2,770 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

On the supply side, the company is still maintaining a low inventory state. The company has a small amount of inventory. In addition, the daily output recovery rate is slower than expected, resulting in tight supply in the market and good supply. In terms of enterprises, some enterprises are still in business, the overall market supply is tight, and enterprises are less willing to cut prices, prompting price increases. In terms of market demand, the current market demand still exists, and downstream compound fertilizer production has a strong demand for urea. However, the agricultural market has low enthusiasm for fertilizer preparation. Traders are still resistant to high prices and hold a wait-and-see attitude.

On the whole, the current market supply is low, demand still exists, and the supply and demand side are well supported. It is expected that the spot price of urea will mainly increase slightly in the short term, and attention will still be paid to the commissioning of maintenance equipment in the future.