Daily Review of Urea: Market trading atmosphere improved and overall prices increased slightly (September 13)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on September 13 was 2,594.23, up 5.45 from yesterday, up 0.21% month-on-month, and up 1.76% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract is 2130, the highest price is 2216, the lowest price is 2108, the settlement price is 2167, and the closing price is 2213. The closing price is up 69 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month increase is 3.22%. The daily fluctuation range is 2108-2216, and the spread is 108; the 01 contract has increased its position by 25010 lots today, and so far, it has held 347988 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, the market price of urea in China has increased more, and some companies below the market price have slightly increased their ex-factory quotations. However, due to the influence of a small number of factors in current market demand, the increase in prices by companies is relatively limited.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,500 - 2,560 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,440 - 2,610 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,510 - 2,520 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,450 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,600 - 2,660 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,520 - 2,700 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,570 - 2,610 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,620 - 2,720 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of enterprises, China's daily output is temporarily around 160,000 tons in the near future. New production capacity is expected this week, and daily output is expected to show signs of recovery in the later period. In terms of demand, demand at this stage is mainly concentrated on wheat topdressing in local areas such as Henan, Anhui, and Jiangsu. The market demand is small, and agricultural demand is cautious in following up. In terms of the market, urea prices fell at the beginning of this week, downstream procurement enthusiasm increased, and the atmosphere in China's urea market was relatively active. In addition, with the beginning of the wheat fertilizer preparation period and some companies with reserve plans starting to enter the market to purchase and stock up, there is still room for improvement in market activity, and market benefits dominate.

On the whole, the current market trading atmosphere has improved slightly compared with the previous period, and it is expected that the spot price of urea will maintain a stable and minor trend in the short term.