Methanol: Futures range fluctuates, Chinese market trading sentiment weakens

On Sept. 12, the methanol market price index was 2304.55, down 25.62 from yesterday and 1.10% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on September 11:

China CFR 280-290USD / t, Ping

European FOB 230-232yuan / ton, down 2 euro / ton

Us FOB 74-76 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 329.5-US $330.5 / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2200-2260 (- 20), North Route: 2140-2180 (0), Lunan: 2420-2430 (20), Henan: & nbsp;2330-2380 (- 20), Shanxi: 2250-2300 (0), Port: 2500-2535 (0)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 180-280 (0Universe Mel 10), South Route-North Shandong 250-300 (0mp 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 120max 180 (- 20max mer 20), Guanzhong-Southwestern Shandong 190-230 (0max Mel 20)

Spot market: today, the price of methanol market fluctuates, the futures market fluctuates, the overall atmosphere of the Chinese market is different, the performance of the market auction in Shanxi is average, and the mentality of traders and terminal downstream operators is more cautious. Shanxi coking auction turnover of 2230-2240 yuan / ton, all transactions; Jianyang 2230 yuan / ton, all failed auction; Yongxin coal coking transaction price 2250 yuan / ton, all transactions Lubao transaction price of 2280-2290 yuan / ton, all transactions. Market prices in the main producing areas have fallen in a narrow range. Today, the price on the north line is 2140-2180 yuan / ton, which is stable. Guanzhong is 2200-2260 yuan / ton, and the lower end is reduced by 20 yuan / ton. The mindset of the operators in the market is cautious, and there are more on-demand purchases downstream, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is limited. Consumption market price narrow adjustment, southern Shandong 2420-2430 yuan / ton, northern Shandong 2370 yuan / ton, the low end down 20 / ton, traders and terminal downstream manufacturers in the hands of more goods, terminal downstream purchase rigid demand, the market transaction atmosphere is light. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: today, methanol futures shock consolidation. Spot rigid demand negotiations; long-term unilateral participation is limited, arbitrage and exchange negotiations are the main, the basis is slightly stronger, trading slightly deadlocked. The overall deal was average.

Forecast in the future: with the continuous increase in methanol prices, the terminal downstream and traders hold certain resistance to the high-priced supply, and at present, the raw material prices of downstream factories maintain a medium-to-high position, the operators enter the market to replenish goods actively, and the trading atmosphere in the market is light. Under the influence of supply recovery and poor shipments in the upstream factory warehouse, enterprise inventories have increased slightly, coupled with the recent volatility in the futures market. The mentality of some operators in the market has been affected to a certain extent, although it is currently in the traditional "Golden Nine" peak season, but there is an obvious volume in the downstream market. At present, traders and terminal downstream manufacturers have a large supply of goods, and the enthusiasm of entering the market to replenish goods in the short term is not high. Under the influence of the possible increase in pressure, some factories do not rule out the existence of operations such as profit concession. It is expected that short-term methanol market prices may continue to fluctuate, but in the later stage, we need to pay attention to macro policies, crude oil and coal prices, on-site plant operation and downstream demand follow-up.