Daily Review of Urea: The low-price advantage is obvious. The market is operating firmly (September 12)

China Urea Price Index:

According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on September 12 was 2,588.77, an increase of 5 from yesterday, a month-on-month increase of 0.19%, and a year-on-year increase of 3.15%.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract is 2146, the highest price is 2176, the lowest price is 2117, the settlement price is 2144, and the closing price is 2158. The closing price is up 19 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month increase is 0.89%. The daily fluctuation range is 2117-2176, and the price difference is 59; the 01 contract has increased 393 lots today, and so far, it has held 322978 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices have stabilized significantly. The ex-factory quotations of most companies have not changed from yesterday. Some companies have slightly increased their ex-factory quotations, and the market has a wait-and-see attitude.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,500 - 2,560 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,440 - 2,600 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,510 - 2,520 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,450 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,590 - 2,650 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,500 - 2,700 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,570 - 2,610 yuan/ton. Prices in South China have stabilized at 2,600 - 2,720 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of supply, the current supply of urea is still relatively tight, and the company's inventory is low. However, as maintenance equipment is put into production and new production capacity is released in a concentrated manner, Nissan will gradually increase in the later period. On the demand side, there is a certain purchasing demand in the downstream compound fertilizer market. Coupled with the continued export and shipment in the early stage, the demand side is favorable for price increases. In terms of the market, due to the recent downward trend in prices, some downstream factories replenished stocks on dips. Urea companies have closed well and transactions have increased, which has simultaneously driven the market trading atmosphere.

On the whole, the current advantage of low prices is obvious, and the market is temporarily firm. It is expected that the spot price of urea will maintain range fluctuations in the short term. Specific attention should also be paid to the resumption of production of equipment in the later period.