Gasoline: Downstream caution has increased, refineries have increased profit-making operations

Gasoline: more cautious psychology downstream, more profit-making operations in refineries

International crude oil closed

 

Date	Market	Specifications	Close (US dollars / barrel)	Rise and fall
20230907	America	WTI	86.87	-0.67
20230907	The United Kingdom	Brent	89.92	-0.68

 

Gasoline price index

On Sept. 8, China's gasoline price index fell 12.76, or 0.14%, to 9401.53, while China's gasoline price index fell 11.44, or 0.12%, to 9724.88. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 323.35.

 

Gasoline market analysis:

Today, the wholesale price of gasoline in China has been steadily reduced, and prices have been lowered in most regions or sorted out in the region, among which the price reduction of 9-kilogram and 9-kilogram gasoline in East China and 9-kilowatt gasoline in Central China are concentrated at 50 yuan per ton. The ex-factory price of geo-refining has been reduced in a narrow range, including 30-50 yuan per ton in Shandong, North China, Central China and East China. Gasoline prices in the northwest and northeast regions are stable for the time being. At present, the turnover in China's gasoline market is moderate, the psychology of resistance to relatively high prices in the middle and lower reaches is increasing, and the stock is mainly eliminated. The speed of refinery shipping slows down, and the deal is more favorable.

September 8 main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 9.7	Price 9.8	Rise and fall
North China region	92#	9050-9800	9050-9800	0/0
	95#	9230-10160	9230-10160	0/0
South China	92#	9250-9700	9250-9700	0/0
	95#	9500-10000	9500-10000	0/0
Central China	92#	9100-9450	9100-9450	0/0
	95#	9250-9750	9250-9700	0/-50
East China region	92#	9200-9600	9150-9600	-50/0
	95#	9350-9900	9300-9900	-50/0
Northwestern region	92#	9100-10134	9100-10134	0/0
	95#	9300-10910	9300-10910	0/0
Southwest China	92#	9390-9750	9390-9750	0/0
	95#	9590-10150	9590-10150	0/0
Northeast China	92#	9130-9880	9130-9880	0/0
	95#	9500-10400	9500-10400	0/0

 

The ex-factory price of gasoline refinery on September 8 (RMB / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 9.7	Price 9.8	Rise and fall
Shandong area	92#	8820-9190	8780-9140	-40/-50
	95#	8990-9350	8950-9300	-40/-50
North China region	92#	8880-9070	8830-9080	-50/10
	95#	8980-9120	8930-9130	-50/10
Central China	92#	9160-9160	9130-9130	-30/-30
	95#	9360-9360	9330-9330	-30/-30
East China region	92#	8910-9050	8910-9010	0/-40
	95#	9030-9220	9030-9180	0/-40
Northwestern region	92#	9050-9300	9050-9300	0/0
	95#	9200-9400	9200-9400	0/0
Northeast China	92#	9150-9150	9150-9150	0/0
	95#	9350-9350	9350-9350	0/0

 

Future forecast

In terms of international crude oil, the US dollar index rose, adding up that China's overall exports fell 8.8% in August compared with the same period last year, negative factors increased, and international oil prices fell somewhat. In the Chinese market, gradually entering the middle of the month, the refinery shipping pressure is gradually increasing, and the price space is narrowing; on the demand side, the fuel consumption support of automotive air conditioners has weakened, and there is still a demand for replenishment, but the South China region has recently been affected by the typhoon and Rain Water has increased to curb trading. On the whole, it is expected that there is room for downward adjustment in China's gasoline market in the short term.

 

 

Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Since the price adjustment of oil products in China on August 23, 2023, oil prices in the international market have fluctuated. According to the current price mechanism of oil products in China, the average price in the first 10 working days on September 6 is less than 50 yuan per ton compared with the average price in the first 10 working days on August 23. The price of gasoline and diesel will not be adjusted this time, and the unadjusted amount will be added or offset in the next price adjustment. The following table shows the results of the price adjustment by the National Development and Reform Commission on August 23, 2023, and the next price adjustment is expected to be September 20.

 

Schedule

Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Unit: yuan / ton

	I. areas with one province and one price
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Beijing	9765	8725
Tianjin	9730	8690
Hebei Province	9730	8690
Shanxi province	9800	8745
Liaoning province	9730	8690
Jilin Province	9730	8690
Heilongjiang province	9730	8690
Shanghai	9745	8695
Jiangsu Province	9785	8730
Zhejiang Province	9785	8745
Anhui province	9780	8740
Fujian Province	9805	8755
Jiangxi province	9785	8750
Shandong province	9740	8700
Hubei province	9755	8715
Hunan Province	9795	8775
Henan province	9750	8710
Hainan province	9875	8825
Chongqing	9945	8900
Guangdong province	9810	8760
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region	9875	8825
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region	9735	8690
Gansu province	9715	8710
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region	9510	8585
II. Areas with one province and one price will not be implemented for the time being
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Hohhot	9745	8705
Chengdu city	9950	8925
Guiyang city	9910	8850
Kunming City	9940	8880
Xi'an city	9715	8700
Xining City	9695	8735

                                                                

Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.

2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIA and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.

3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.

4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 9350 yuan and 8300 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.