Methanol: The methanol period is now being lowered simultaneously, and the Chinese market atmosphere has become weaker

On Sept. 8, the methanol market price index was 2324.6, down 9.42 from yesterday and 0.40 per cent from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on September 7:

China CFR 281-290 US dollars / ton, down 5 US dollars / ton

European FOB 229.5-231.5 euros / ton, down 1 euro / ton

Us FOB 74-76 cents per gallon, up 2 cents per gallon

CFR in Southeast Asia was 299.5-300.5 US dollars / ton, down 3 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2190-2290 (0), North Route: 2140-2230 (- 40), Lunan: 2480 (0), Henan: & nbsp;2330-2400 (- 20), Shanxi: 2250-2300 (- 30), Port: 2455-2485 (- 10)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 230-310 (0amp 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 280-330 (0max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 160-220 (- 10max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 190-250 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is narrowly down, the price is reduced by 10-30 yuan / ton, the volatility of the futures market is weak, the port spot negotiation is limited, the inventory of enterprises in the Chinese market rises slightly, and the middlemen hold more goods. the enthusiasm of downstream and traders to enter the market is not high, and some production enterprises lower their quotations for shipment, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been partially reduced. Today, the price on the north line is quoted at 2140-2230 yuan / ton, and the lower end is reduced by 40 yuan / ton. At present, inventory has accumulated in the field, the downstream pick-up speed is slow, and the market price in the region has fallen to varying degrees. The transaction atmosphere is slightly general, and we need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field in the later stage. Consumer market prices fell partially, southern Shandong 2480 yuan / ton, low-end stability, northern Shandong 2390-2430 yuan / ton, low-end reduction of 60 yuan / ton, the current mentality of market operators are cautious, downstream more on-demand purchases. Today's market bidding price is around 2420-2430 yuan / ton, including 2430 yuan / ton for Lihuayi methanol and 2420 yuan / ton for Shenchi chemical industry. Prices in North China have been partially reduced, including 2250-2300 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 30 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2370-2420 yuan / ton in Hebei, which is stable at the low end. Prices in southwest China are stable, including 2410-2460 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2410-2500 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, with a stable low end. At present, the market continues smoothly, the negotiations on the market are flat, and the rigid demand for purchasing downstream of the terminal is the main. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: today, methanol futures shock consolidation. Rigid demand buying and selling in recent months. Long-term arbitrage shipments are mainly, some unilateral higher than low, wait-and-see majority, the basis stabilized, the transaction is general. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2455-2470, base difference 01-55 Maximus 50 position 9 in transaction: 2480-2500, base difference 01-40 Universe Melissa 35 transaction 9 transaction: 2480-2505, base difference 01-35 Accord 30 transaction 10 transaction: 2515-2530, basis difference 01mm 0Universe 5.

Future forecast: on the supply side, there are both maintenance and restart in the Chinese market recently. During the parking of Boyuan in Inner Mongolia, Kaiyue in Yulin, Shengfa in Shandong, etc., the early maintenance devices gradually returned. Anhui carbon Xin, Shaanxi Black Cat, Wangcang Hezhong, Sichuan Lutianhua, Inner Mongolia Cathay Pacific and other devices have been restored one after another, which involves more production capacity than lost capacity. In addition, the delivery volume in the lower reaches of the week is not as expected. The inventory of Chinese production enterprises accumulates in a narrow range, and the port inventory also continues to accumulate. China's overall supply is relatively abundant, and it is necessary to pay attention to the plant operation and inventory changes in the later stage. On the demand side: recently, the price of raw material methanol has fallen continuously, the profits of some downstream products have warmed up, the storage load of some enterprises is expected to increase, and as the temperature enters the downward channel, methanol enters the peak season of traditional consumption. in addition, the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday is approaching, some downstream stock demand is coming, the overall terminal demand is good, but some inventory of downstream enterprises is still high. Tianjin Bohua MTO and Shaanxi Weihua DME units are stopped for maintenance, Dongfang Hualong plant is planned to be overhauled, methanol procurement is stopped, there is no obvious volume on the short-term demand surface, and attention should be paid to the load change of downstream units and downstream profit repair in the later stage. At present, there is no favorable support in the macro side for the time being, the performance on the supply side is abundant, the demand side fluctuates slightly, the demand for stock in the lower reaches of the festival still exists, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to be arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.