Methanol: Futures market fluctuated and fell. Chinese market atmosphere weakened

On Sept. 7, the market price index of methanol was 2334.02, down 4.95 from yesterday and 0.21% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on September 6:

China CFR 286-US $295 / ton, down US $2 / tonne

European FOB 230.5-232.5 euros / ton, flat

Us FOB 72-74 cents per gallon, up 2 cents per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR 302.5-303.5 US dollars / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2190-2290 (0), North Route: 2180-2230 (0), Lunan: 2480 (0), Henan: & nbsp;2350-2400 (- 20), Shanxi: 2280-2310 (0), Port: 2465-2505 (- 65)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 230-310 (10max 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 280-330 (0max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 170-220 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwestern Shandong 190-250 (- 10Compare 10)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is weak, the price is reduced by 10-56 yuan / ton, the futures market fluctuates and falls, the port spot transaction is OK, the supply side of the Chinese market fluctuates little, and there is no obvious volume on the demand side for the time being. coupled with the high inventory downstream, the acceptance sentiment of downstream and traders is weak, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market weakens. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are arranged in a narrow range. Today, the price of the north line is 2180-2230 yuan / ton, and the low end is stable. The poor situation of early shipment has led to the accumulation of inventory in some enterprises, and some manufacturers have lowered their quotations for shipment. however, the enthusiasm of downstream and traders to enter the market and replenish goods is general, and the trading atmosphere is weak, and we still need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field in the later stage. Consumer market prices are stable and small, with 2480 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2450-2470 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The low end is stable. At present, the mindset of operators in the market is different, and more on-demand purchases are made downstream. Prices in North China remain stable, of which Shanxi quoted 2280-2310 yuan / ton, Hebei quoted 2370-2420 yuan / ton, low-end stable, some enterprises reduced shipments, the transaction is general. The price in southwest China is stable, including 2410-2460 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2410-2500 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing. The low end is stable. At present, the negotiations in the market are flat, and the rigid demand at the downstream of the terminal is mainly. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: today, methanol futures fell sharply and rebounded slightly. In recent months, the sale and purchase of contracts are mainly discussed, and the transaction is done at a reasonable price. Long-term unilateral low-price pick-up is active, the basis is strong, the overall transaction volume throughout the day. Taicang main port transaction price: spot / 9: 2475-2495, base difference 01-55 Uniqoum 50th 9 deal: 2505-2512 01-40 Melissa 35 X 9 deal: 2485-2510 pm 01-35 ram 30 Tran 10 deal: 2515-2545 01-2 Universe 3.

Future forecast: in the near future, the macro aspect is not good for the time being, the cost support is stable, the equipment in the Chinese market is overhauled and restarted, Guotai ignition in Inner Mongolia is restarted, and the methanol plant in Carbonate of Anhui Province resumes normal operation. during the parking of Boyuan, Yulin Coal Kaiyue, Shandong Shengfa and other devices, the enterprise shipments were general during the week, the inventory of Chinese production enterprises accumulated in a narrow range, and there were still some equipment plans to restart in the later stage, coupled with the continuous accumulation of port inventory. China's overall supply or inventory is expected to increase, and in the later stage, we need to pay attention to the plant operation and inventory changes in the field. From the demand point of view, as the temperature enters the downward channel, methanol enters the peak season of traditional consumption, and the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday is approaching. Some of the downstream inventory demand is expected to be good as a whole, but recently, the profits of some downstream products continue to lose money, affecting the mentality of receiving goods and the start-up of downstream manufacturers. Some enterprises reduce the burden and production, Tianjin Bohua MTO plant, Shaanxi Weihua DME plant parking maintenance, short-term demand side favorable support is limited, in the later stage, we should pay attention to the downstream device load change and downstream profit repair. At present, there is no favorable support in the macro side for the time being, there is little fluctuation in the fundamentals, there is no obvious volume on the demand side, and some downstream stocks are high, the purchasing sentiment of the operators in the field is general, and it is expected that the methanol market price may be weak in the short term. in the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.