Methanol: Futures market fluctuated widely, Chinese market prices were mixed

On Sept. 6, the market price index of methanol was 2338.97, down 0.01% from yesterday, or 0.0004 per cent lower than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on September 5:

China CFR 288-290USD / t, Ping

European FOB 230.5-232.5 euros / ton, down 3 euros / ton

Us FOB 70-72 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 302.5-303.5 US dollars / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2190-2290 (0), North Route: 2180-2230 (0), Lunan: 2480-2500 (- 20), Henan: & nbsp;2370-2405 (0), Shanxi: 2280-2320 (20), Port: 2530-2560 (0)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 230-310 (10max 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 280-330 (0max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 170-220 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwestern Shandong 200-260 (0Universe 10)

Spot market: today, methanol market range is sorted out, and the price fluctuation range is 10-130. Yuan / ton, the futures market fluctuates widely, the port spot negotiations show a slight stalemate, the supply in the Chinese market is relatively abundant, and there is no obvious positive support on the demand side for the time being, coupled with the high inventory downstream and weak acceptance sentiment among downstream and traders. the overall trading atmosphere in the market is general. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have been partially reduced, and today the northern line quotes 2180-2230 yuan / ton, which is stable at the low end. at present, the inventory of production enterprises in the field has accumulated, and some manufacturers have lowered their quotations for shipment, but the shipping situation is not satisfactory. Traders and downstream mentality are more cautious, in the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. The market price of consumer land has been partially reduced, with 2480-2500 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 20 yuan / ton in the low end, 2450-2490 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, and 20 yuan / ton in the low end. At present, the mindset of market operators is different, and more on-demand purchases are made downstream. Prices in North China are mixed, of which Shanxi quoted 2280-2320 yuan / ton, the low end increased 20 yuan / ton, Hebei quoted 2370-2420 yuan / ton, the low-end down 30 yuan / ton, part of the price sentiment still exists, the transaction is general. Prices in southwest China have been partially raised, of which Yungui quotation is 2410-2460 yuan / ton, low-end price is increased by 130 yuan / ton, Sichuan-Chongqing price is 2410-2500 yuan / ton, and the low end is stable. at present, the negotiation mood in the market is good, and the purchase rigid demand in the lower reaches of the terminal is mainly. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: today, methanol futures shock consolidation. In recent months, the sale and purchase of contracts are mainly discussed, and the transaction is done at a reasonable price. Forward arbitrage and exchange quotations, unilateral wait-and-see, the basis stabilized, the overall transaction throughout the day in general. Taicang main port transaction price: spot / 9: 2530-2540, base difference 01-60Universe buyer 57position 9-deal: 2540-2550, base difference 01-45exobe 43 position 9 transaction: 2540-2565, base difference 01-38Compay 35th transaction 10: 2570-2590, base difference 01-8ram 3.

Future forecast: from the supply point of view: with the sharp rise in methanol market prices, the resistance of downstream and traders to the high price is obvious, local shipments are poor, and the inventory of Chinese production enterprises has been raised narrowly. At present, the plant maintenance and restart are carried out alternately, Boyuan methanol plant parking maintenance, Yulin Coal Kaiyue, Shandong Shengfa, Hengxin Tech temporary parking, while the previous maintenance equipment has been restarted one after another. Inner Mongolia Cathay Pacific 400000 ton methanol plant ignition restart, Anhui carbon Xin 500000 ton plant stable production, in the later stage, some units are still planned to restart, coupled with the port inventory continues to accumulate, China's overall supply is expected to increase, in the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the plant operation and inventory changes. From the demand point of view: the recent continuous losses in the profits of some downstream products have affected the mentality of receiving goods and the start-up situation of downstream manufacturers, some enterprises have reduced the burden and production, Tianjin Bohua MTO plant, Shaanxi Weihua DME plant parking maintenance, short-term demand support is limited, however, under the influence of pre-festival stock and Jinjiu consumption peak season, the overall downstream demand is still in a slow rising channel. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the load change of the downstream device and the downstream profit repair. At present, the cost support is temporarily stable, the fundamentals are fluctuating, the supply is expected to increase, there is no obvious favorable support on the demand side for the time being, the wait-and-see mood of the operators in the market is gradually rising, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to be adjusted in a narrow range. In the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.