Methanol: Various emotions intertwined, methanol market weakness sorted out

On September 5, the methanol market price index was 2338.98, down 1.77 from yesterday, or 0.08% lower than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on September 4:

China CFR 288-290 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton

European FOB 233.5-235.5 euros / ton, flat

Us FOB 70-72 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 302.5-303.5 US dollars / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2190-2290 (0), North Route: 2180-2230 (0), Lunan: 2500 (0), Henan: & nbsp;2370-2415 (- 10), Shanxi: 2260-2350 (- 30), Port: 2530-2560 (25)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 220-310 (0amp 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 280-330 (0max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 170-220 (10mp 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 200-270 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is weak and the price fluctuates. 10-80 yuan per ton, under the support of good news, the futures market fluctuated and rebounded, but methanol fundamentals fluctuated little, downstream inventory was high, and there was a resistance to high-priced supply, and downstream and traders were mainly receiving goods with rigid demand. some production enterprises lowered their quotations for shipment, and the overall transaction atmosphere was OK. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have been partially reduced. Today, the northern line quotes 2180-2230 yuan / ton, and the low end is stable. At present, some devices in the field are parking and overhauled, the Yulin Kaiyue fault is about to stop, the supply of goods in the region is tight, and some enterprises lower their quotations and shipments. The shipment situation is good, and some enterprises are all sold at auction. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field. The market price of consumer land has been lowered, with 2500 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 2470-2490 yuan / ton in northern Shandong and 10 yuan / ton in the lower end. At present, the market trading is cautious and the mindset of operators is different. Today's market bidding price is around 2450-2490 yuan / ton, including 2470 yuan / ton for Shenchi chemical methanol, 2490 yuan / ton for Jincheng Petrochemical and 2450 yuan / ton for Oriental Hualong. Prices in North China have been partially reduced, including 2260-2350 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 30 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2400-2450 yuan / ton in Hebei, which is stable at the low end. some enterprises have lowered their quotations for shipment, and the transaction is OK. Prices in southwest China have been partially raised, of which Yungui quotation is 2280-2400 yuan / ton, low-end price is stable, Sichuan-Chongqing price is 2410-2500 yuan / ton, and low-end price increase is 80 yuan / ton. at present, the price-raising sentiment of the production enterprises in the market is still there, and the wait-and-see mood is dominant, and the downstream receiving rigid demand is mainly. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures rose today after a pullback. Spot holding price sales, rigid demand procurement; long-term arbitrage and exchange operations, unilateral selling is limited, the basis is stable. The overall transaction throughout the day is mediocre. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2525-2535, base difference 01-60 Melody 55t9. Deal: 2560, base difference 01-60 Melody 57bot 9. Deal: 2530-2570, base difference 01-42Compare 40bot 9 deal: 2545-2570, base difference 01-38bp 35X 10 times deal: 2575-2605, base difference 01-8achue 5.

Future forecast: cost: coal prices are stable in the near future, and cost support is temporarily stable, but the actual demand of downstream terminals is limited. After the temperature enters the downward channel, the daily consumption of power plants decreases significantly, traders are cautious in purchasing, and short-term coal prices are mainly volatile. On the supply side: at present, there are both overhaul and restart of the plant in the field, and the overall fluctuation of the supply side is not obvious for the time being. Ningxia and Ning stop for maintenance, and the stable operation of the Baofeng Phase III olefin plant leads to the reduction of methanol external sales and the reduction of supply in the region. however, downstream and traders have obvious price depression, methanol transaction price has little room for profit, and the overall short-term supply side does not change much. In the later stage, we should pay attention to the plant operation and inventory changes in the field. On the demand side: recently, methanol prices have continued to rise, and the rising strength of downstream products has been limited, resulting in continuous losses in the profits of some downstream products, resulting in a growing resistance to high-priced supply. However, under the influence of pre-holiday stock preparation and the expectation of Jinjiu consumption season, coupled with the stable operation of Baofeng Phase III and Silbon MTO, the external methanol production of some olefin enterprises has increased, and the overall downstream demand is still in a slow rising channel. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the load change of the olefin plant and the downstream profit repair. At present, the cost support is temporarily stable, the supply change is limited, and the pre-holiday reserve demand is expected to be good for the market, but some downstream profit reduction has a certain impact on the demand side, and it is expected that the short-term methanol market price may be arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.