[Ethanol Daily Review]: China's ethanol market trends on September 5

The price index of general-grade ethanol was 6383.35 on September 5th, compared with the previous working day.

The price of Jilin in China's ethanol market rose. Hot spots on September 5: first, prices in Henan are stable. Second, prices in East China are stable. Third, the price of Jilin in Northeast China has increased by 50 yuan per ton. Fourth, the bidding price of ethyl acetate has increased. Fifth, the purchase price of refineries in the region has increased. Sixth, the price of coal-based ethanol rose slightly.

Specifically, the northeast Heilongjiang enterprises offer stable, order delivery. Jilin area price rises 50 yuan / ton, the enterprise inventory is not high, the price sale. Prices in Henan are stable. East China order delivery, individual early quotations higher enterprise quotations slightly lower, chemical rigid demand procurement. The transaction price of coal-based ethanol is better, and the premium continues to rise. The purchasing price of refineries in the region has risen, and regional freight has risen slightly. Northeast enterprise Jilin market price 6550-6600 yuan / ton, Jilin no water 7200-7450 yuan / ton. The general grade of Heilongjiang market is 6400-6550 yuan / ton, and the Heilongjiang anhydrous market is 7150-7300 yuan / ton. The northeast closing position is about 6750-6850 yuan / ton. The superior enterprises in Central China offer 6700-6720 yuan / ton, and the water-free price is 7450-7500 yuan / ton. The price of ethanol in East China is 6850 yuan / ton. The price of anhydrous ethanol is 7600-7700 yuan / ton, and the general price in southern Jiangsu is 7000-7150 yuan / ton. Cassava ethanol 7100-7200 yuan / ton in Guangxi, South China.

& nbsp;                                     unit: yuan / ton

Raw materials / by-products and downstream

Unit: yuan / ton, US dollar / ton

Future forecast: ethanol prices in China are expected to be strong in the short term. In the short term, the strategy of the main production enterprises in Northeast China to produce fuel remains unchanged, and the pre-festival stock of downstream refineries exists, supporting fuel prices to remain stable. In edible ethanol, large factories in northeast Heilongjiang continue to maintain low-load production to support high prices. Jilin factory after the start of short-term inventory is not high, pre-festival stock blessing, the price is mainly stable. After the concentration of raw materials in Henan in mid-September, the cost is likely to decline, and the cost is negative. The consumption is driven by the return journey of two Sichuan cars near liquor, and the downstream chemical industry opens cross-regional arbitrage with the influence of high prices in other regions, so it is possible for chemical industry to purchase from Henan, and the demand side is favorable. Individual enterprises have the possibility of increasing the line with the increase of the supply of raw materials, which is negative on the supply side. The output of the main factories in eastern China and northern Jiangsu has increased, alleviating some of the supply of goods, but the pressure on the cost side is greater, the production cost is more than 7100 yuan / ton, the enterprise has made a substantial loss in production, and the enterprise is not willing to take the initiative to lower the offer, unless the demand is limited. Prices will be passively weakened. There is a situation of stock preparation before the downstream festival, and long-distance freight rates are likely to rise.

Raw materials: corn ethanol: high price finishing, corn prices in central China are about to rise, negative corn price trend. At present, after the price of ddgs rises to a high level, downstream for the purchase of high-level raw materials. Cassava dry aspect: enterprise rigid demand procurement, Thailand is willing to raise the price is obvious, cassava dry inventory sales are expected short-term cassava dry price high finishing.

Supply: northeast start: Dongning shutdown, Baoquanling shutdown, Cofco Zhaodong normal, Wanli installation normal, Hongzhan 4 factory installations normal, Heilongjiang Shenglong shutdown, Zhongkegreen production, Fuyu Huitong shutdown; Fukang production, Tianyu production, Shuntong shutdown, Dongfeng Huafang downtime, Xintianlong normal, Liniu shutdown. East China Flower Hall normal, Guannan shutdown, Jin Changlin shutdown, Guohua shutdown, Changxing production, Longhe production, Romat production, sul shutdown, Fulaichun continued shutdown, Maibo Huihui shutdown, MINUSTAH production. The production of Mengzhou plant in Henan province has been reduced. Jufeng shuts down. Chifeng Ruiyang production, Zalantun production. Jilin fuel is normal, Guotou Tieling production. Tianguan Nanyang production. Guotou Jidong feed production.

Demand: downstream chemical rigid demand procurement. Liquor order purchase.

Logistics: logistics price is stable.

Equipment maintenance table of Chinese ethanol enterprises

Remarks: all estimated downtime and production capacity are subject to the specific downtime of the factory.