Methanol: Spot prices are mixed, transactions in the Chinese market are average

On September 4th, the methanol market price index was 2340.75, up 13.34 from the previous working day and 0.57% higher than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on September 1st:

China CFR 290-US $295 / ton, up US $4 / tonne

European FOB 233.5-235.5 euros / ton, up 1 euro / ton

Us FOB 70-72 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 302.5-303.5 US dollars / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2190-2290 (0), North Route: 2180-2240 (0), Lunan: 2500 (40), Henan: & nbsp;2380-2410 (- 30), Shanxi: 2290-2325 (30), Port: 2505-2535 (0)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 220-310 (- 20amp 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 280-330 (0amp 10), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 160-220 (- 20mp 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 200-270 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is mixed, the price fluctuation range is 15-60 yuan / ton, the futures market volatility is weak, the port spot demand is relatively abundant, and the supply is relatively abundant at present, while the downstream resistance to the continuous rise in high prices is obvious, the procurement rhythm has slowed down, in order to digest the previous increases, the market trading atmosphere is limited. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is stable and small. Today, the north line quotes 2180-2240 yuan / ton, maintaining the previous working day. Among them, Shaanxi Changqing methanol this week quoted price: 2000 tons quoted 2330 yuan / ton, more than 2000 tons less than 2340 yuan / ton, the plant 600000 tons methanol plant normal operation, at present, some enterprises in the field still have shipping demand, while downstream buy more to maintain rigid demand, some enterprises competitive auction storage In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. Prices in the consumer market are mixed, with 2500 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 40 yuan / ton in the low end, 2480-2500 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, and 80 yuan / ton in the low end. At present, the market trading is cautious, the mentality of operators is general, and more wait and see at the beginning of the week. Prices in North China have been partially raised, including quotations of 2290-2325 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 30 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2400-2450 yuan / ton in Hebei, which is stable at the low end, with firm quotations from some enterprises, low sentiment among traders and general transaction. The price in southwest China is stable, including 2280-2400 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2330-2450 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, which is stable at the low end. at present, it is difficult for downstream factories to receive goods, the terminal continues to be weak, and the accumulation of enterprises in the field is obvious. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: today, methanol futures volatility is weak. Spot rigid demand buying and selling, long-term arbitrage delivery-based, some unilateral bargain-hunting, the basis is stable and slightly stronger, the idea of replacement continues. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2500-2525, base difference 01-65 Maximus 60t9. Deal: 2520-2535, base difference 01-60 Melody 55 position 9. Transaction: 2520-2530, base difference 01-45 Universe 40Trent 9. Deal: 2530-2555, base difference 01-40 Universe 33 transaction 10: 2555-2585, base difference 01-5Comp3.

Future forecast: the recent cost support is temporarily stable, the terminal demand for coal is limited, traders are cautious in purchasing, short-term coal prices are mainly volatile, the futures market remains high, the spot price runs with rising prices, and the spot supply is sufficient in the market. under the premise that traders have shipping demand, the mood of price reduction is obvious, methanol transaction price is not ideal, and the situation of some enterprises is not ideal, and stocks in the Chinese market have risen slightly. Although there are large-scale units in some areas, and methanol plants such as Ningxia and Ning, Xinjiang Xinlianxin and Boyuan are overhauled as scheduled, methanol plants such as Inner Mongolia Cathay Pacific, Sichuan Lu Tianhua, Wangcang Hezhong Chemical Industry, Shanxi Tianze and other methanol plants are expected to be restarted. The overall short-term supply side does not change much. In the later stage, we should pay attention to whether the equipment in the field has an autumn inspection plan. From the demand side, the stock time of some products downstream of the terminal is ahead of schedule. At present, the inventory in the lower reaches is on the high side, the purchasing demand is general, coupled with the recent continuous rise in methanol prices, and the limited upward momentum downstream, resulting in continuous loss of profits of some downstream products, and then the resistance to the high-priced supply is gradually rising. However, with the start-up of Baofeng Phase III, Gansu Huating load, long-term recovery of Shenghong MTO, the methanol external production of some olefin enterprises has increased, and the overall downstream demand is still in a slow rising channel. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the load change of the olefin plant and the downstream profit repair. At present, the cost support is temporarily stable, the supply change is limited, and the pre-holiday reserve demand is expected to be good for the market, but some downstream profit reduction has a certain impact on the demand side, and it is expected that the short-term methanol market price may be arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.