Methanol: Fundamental fluctuations are limited. Methanol futures remain high

On September 1, the methanol market price index was 2293.33, up 6.98 from yesterday, an increase of 0.31% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 31:

China CFR 286-292 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton

European FOB 232.5-234.5 euros / ton, flat

Us FOB 70-72 cents per gallon, up 1 cent per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR 302.5-303.5 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2190-2240 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 2180-2240 (0), Lunan: 2460-2470 (- 30), Henan: & nbsp;2410-2455 (40), Shanxi: 2260-2350 (0), Port: 25052520 (15)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 240-310 (10ax 10), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 280-320 (10ax 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 170-220 (10ax 10), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 200-270 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market continues to rise, with a price increase of 10-100 Consumer market prices are mixed, with southern Shandong 2460-2470 yuan / ton, low-end down 30 yuan / ton, northern Shandong 2560-2580 yuan / ton, and low-end up 60 yuan / ton. at present, the market is cautious and the mentality of operators is strong. Today's market bidding price is around 2540-2570 yuan / ton, including Jincheng Petrochemical methanol bidding price of 2570 yuan / ton, Shenchi Chemical Industry 2540 yuan / ton. Prices in North China remain stable, with quotes of 2260-2350 yuan / ton in Shanxi and 2400-2450 yuan / ton in Hebei, with low-end stability, strong quotations of some enterprises, low sentiment among traders, and mediocre transactions. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures fell after rising today. Spot rigid demand buying, long-term unilateral high shipments, arbitrage receiving goods, the basis fluctuates slightly. The overall transaction is active. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2550-2575, basis 01-70 position 9 on transaction: 2560-2580, base difference 01-60 buyer 55 position 9 transaction: 2570-2600, base difference 01-45 position 9 transaction: 2575-2610, basis difference 01-45 ram 3710 transaction: 2610-2635, basis difference 01-12bp 7.

Future forecast: on the supply side: the methanol market price has continued to rise recently, and the resistance of downstream and traders to the high price is gradually rising, resulting in the overall shipping situation of production enterprises in the week is slightly general, Chinese inventory rose slightly, but still maintained a low level of operation. Next week, methanol plants such as Inner Mongolia Cathay Pacific, Sichuan Lutianhua, Wangcang Hezhong Chemical Industry, Shanxi Tianze and other methanol plants are expected to be restarted, and Boyuan 150000 tons methanol plant is planned to be overhauled. China's overall supply is still abundant, and the short-term supply growth is limited. At a later stage, we need to pay attention to whether the equipment in the field is stored in the autumn inspection plan. In terms of demand: the start-up of the terminal downstream products has gradually resumed, but recently the methanol price has risen sharply, and the downstream rising strength is limited, which leads to a loss in the profits of some downstream products, or has a certain impact on the start-up and storage of some downstream products. at present, the raw material inventory of some downstream enterprises is still on the high side, Shenhua Yulin and Qinghai Salt Lake plan to restart, Gansu Huating load increases, and methanol external production of olefin enterprises is expected to increase. The overall downstream demand is in a slow rising channel, and in the later stage, we should pay attention to the load change of the olefin plant and the downstream profit repair. At present, the macro expectation is good, the cost change is limited, the fundamental fluctuation of methanol is small, the disk is maintained at a high level and the "Jinjiu" is expected to be good for the market, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to be arranged at a high level. in the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.