Methanol: The methanol period continues to be strong and the transaction atmosphere has become weaker

On August 31, the methanol market price index was 2286.35, up 6.82 from yesterday and 0.30 per cent higher than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 30:

China CFR 288-US $294 / ton, up US $10 / ton

European FOB 232.5-234.5 euros / ton, flat

Us FOB 69-71 cents per gallon, up 1 cent per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR 304.5-305.5 US dollars / ton, up 12 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2190-2240 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 2180-2200 (0), Lunan: 2490 (40), Henan: & nbsp;2370-2390 (10), Shanxi: 2260-2320 (20), Port: 24902515 (0)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 230-300 (10ax 10), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 270-320 (0ax 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 160-210 (10ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 200-270 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is arranged at a high level, and the price fluctuation range 10-100 yuan per ton, the futures market volatility is strong, the port basis is weak, and the transaction is slightly deadlocked. At present, the supply and demand of methanol does not fluctuate much, the negotiation atmosphere in the Chinese market returns to calm, and the quotations of enterprises in some areas are still raised, but the downstream delivery is slightly cautious. The overall trading atmosphere is weak. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are stable and small. Today, the price of the southern route is 2050-2060 yuan / ton, and the northern line is 2180-2200 yuan / ton. The low end is stable. At present, the supply pressure on the field is not great, and some enterprises hesitate to sell and continue to raise their quotations for shipment. The trading atmosphere is general, and we need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field in the later stage. The market price of consumer land has been raised, with 2490 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 40 yuan / ton in the low end, 2500 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, and 60 yuan / ton in the low end. Prices rose in North China, of which Shanxi quoted 2260-2320 yuan / ton, the low end increased 20 yuan / ton, Hebei quoted 2400-2450 yuan / ton, the low end increased 50 yuan / ton, some enterprises quoted firm, the mood of traders to accept goods is not high, the transaction is average. Prices in southwest China remain stable, including 2280-2400 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2330-2450 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, and the low end is stable. At present, some of the maintenance equipment in the field has not been restarted, the inventory remains low, the willingness of the consignors to raise the price still exists, and the downstream mainly buys according to demand. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: today, methanol futures are high and volatile. Spot a small amount of rigid demand negotiations, long-term arbitrage trading, unilateral participation is limited, slightly stalemate, the overall transaction is light. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2505-2520, base difference 01-65 position 9 on transaction: 2515-2530, base difference 01-60 Maury 50 position 9 in transaction: 2520-2535, base difference 01-45 Maxima 42 cross 9 transaction: 2530-2540, base difference 01-35 position 10 transaction: 2555-2575, base difference 01-5 10 10.

Future forecast: methanol futures have rebounded recently, supporting the market to continue to strengthen, but spot prices have risen sharply, the resistance of downstream and traders to high-priced sources of goods has gradually become apparent, and the market trading atmosphere has weakened. at present, the inventory of production enterprises in the Chinese market remains low, and the spot supply is slightly tight as a result of parking and overhauling some equipment in some areas, and the price-up sentiment of the operators in the market still exists in September. Some of the units in the field or the autumn inspection plan need to be tracked. It is expected that there is limited room for supply growth in the short-term methanol market. In terms of demand, the terminal downstream products will gradually resume and will soon enter the peak demand season of Jinjiu Silver Ten. The traditional downstream demand is expected to increase. However, with the recent continuous rise in methanol prices, olefins follow up is limited, resulting in downstream olefins in the loss stage. Or it may have a certain impact on the start-up and storage of olefins, at present, the raw material inventory of some enterprises downstream is still on the high side, Tianjin Bohua plans to overhaul, Ningxia Baofeng plans to put into production, Silbon expects to resume the Chinese contract in September, methanol production from olefin enterprises may increase, and downstream demand is in a slowly rising channel. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the commissioning of Baofeng Phase III MTO plant and downstream profit repair. At present, the macro expectation is good, the cost change is limited, the fundamental fluctuation of methanol is small, the disk is maintained at a high level and the "Jinjiu" is expected to be good for the market, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to be arranged at a high level. in the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.