Daily review of urea: Low corporate inventories, market prices increased slightly (August 30)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on August 30 was 2,561.95, up 2.27 from yesterday, up 0.09% month-on-month, and up 6% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

The opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract: 2199, the highest price: 2284, the lowest price: 2181, the settlement price: 2233, the closing price: 2262. The closing price increased by 114 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month increase by 5.31%. The daily fluctuation range is 2181-2284, and the spread is 103; the 01 contract has reduced its position by 10750 lots today, and has held 305384 lots so far.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices stabilized and rose slightly. The daily urea production dropped slightly. There was a small amount of spot on the market. Some companies began to slightly increase their prices, but there were limited transactions at rising prices.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,450 - 2,520 yuan/ton. Prices in North China have stabilized at 2,400 - 2,600 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,500 - 2,510 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,400 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,550 - 2,620 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has risen to 2,500 - 2,700 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,550 - 2,580 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,600 - 2,680 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

On the supply side, since this week, multiple devices have been stopped for maintenance, resulting in a significant drop in daily output and low inventory. Manufacturers have a wait-and-see attitude. On the demand side, China is currently in the off-season of demand, dealers 'purchasing sentiment is flat, and industrial demand is cautious in purchasing. China's urea purchasing activity is not high, and new orders are limited. In terms of futures, due to the rebound in soda ash futures prices, the daily limit of glass futures prices, and the cumulative transfer of urea stocks, urea futures prices rose today. It is expected that this round of increase will simultaneously drive changes in urea market prices.

On the whole, the current inventory in the urea market is low and the trading market is generally active. It is expected that the urea market will fluctuate slightly in a short period of time.