PVC: Futures prices have soared sharply, Wenhua Index has climbed, and spot adjustments have frequently increased

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August 30, 2023, 4:50 PM

PVC futures analysis: August 30th V2401 contract opening price: 6171, highest price: 6303, lowest price: 6159, position: 655863, settlement price: 6234, yesterday settlement: 6211, up: 23, daily trading volume: 823110 lots, precipitated capital: 2.893 billion, capital inflow: 64.29 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 8.29	Price 8.30	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	6060-6120	6080-6150	20/30	Send to cash remittance
East China	6050-6150	6140-6200	90/50	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	6160-6230	6180-6260	20/30	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	6000-6150	6000-6200	0/50	Send to cash remittance
Central China	6110-6270	6200-6230	90/-40	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5950-6100	6000-6100	50/0	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices rise, prices rise and fall relatively frequently during the week. Comparison of valuation: among them, North China rose 20-30 yuan / ton, East China 50-90 yuan / ton, South China 20-30 yuan / ton, Northeast China 50 yuan / ton, and low-end prices in Central China 90 yuan / tonne. High-end prices fell 40 yuan / ton, and the southwest rose 50 yuan / ton. The ex-factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises was raised by 50 yuan / ton individually, and most of them maintained a stable digestion of factory inventory, with no obvious traces of rising. Futures prices have risen and fallen sharply recently. after the futures price rose today, the spot market traders offered a higher price than yesterday, and the spot price coexisted with the spot price. Among them, East China base offer 01 contract-(50-70-110), South China 01 contract-(0-50) good fan + 20, North 01 contract-(340-370-470), Southwest 01 contract-(260). After the price of the two cities rose, the transaction began to fade, the enthusiasm of inquiry and procurement was not high, and the actual order transaction was mainly negotiated. As a whole, there were some low-price transactions in the morning, but the transaction was not good after the price went up.

From the perspective of futures: & the night price of nbsp; PVC2401 contract bottomed out and rebounded, while the low opening and high futures prices rose in late trading. After the start of morning trading, the futures price fluctuated on the basis of the night closing price, then rose for the second time in the afternoon, and the afternoon futures price jumped to a high above the 6300 mark. 2401 contracts range from 6159 to 6303 throughout the day, with a spread of 144. 01 and 655863 positions so far. The 2309 contract closed at 6208, with 31196 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2401 contract prices rose and fell sharply in the week, Monday to Tuesday futures prices fell sharply through the middle track and further fell deeply, but the market reversal futures prices returned to the upside from lows on Wednesday, and rose sharply during the day, breaking through the 6300 mark. The sharp rise and fall of the market caught the industrial chain by surprise. At the close of midday, China's main futures contracts rose by 9.02%, urea by more than 5%, soda ash by nearly 5%, methanol by more than 3%, fuel, coking coal and PTA by more than 2%, and coke, iron ore and styrene (EB) by nearly 2%. PVC main contracts also follow the overall commodity red. And the trend line KD turns to Golden Fork. In the short term, the adjustment of futures prices may still fluctuate frequently, and observe the persistence above 6300.

Spot aspect: commodity sentiment has recently shown a trend of increased volatility. Although PVC is on the list, it also follows the trend of expanding the scope of commodity sentiment. As far as the spot is concerned, the enthusiasm of high price inquiry is weakened, and the current fundamental variables of PVC are few, so the recent price fluctuations basically rely on the overall commodity sentiment. For the short-term third quarter is about to enter September, expectations still exist, but the overall expected range is expected to be limited, we still maintain the previous point of view, expected cooling or before there is no substantive landing policy, there will still be a large contradiction between supply and demand in the fourth quarter as far as PVC products are concerned. In the outer disk, oil prices rose as the dollar fell and the dollar weakened, making dollar-denominated oil cheaper for investors holding other currencies, boosting demand, and investors discussed the impact on energy supplies of Hurricane Idalia, which will hit Florida this week. On the whole, the spot price of PVC will face the trend of continuous shock adjustment in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	8.29th	8.30	Rate of change
	V2309 collection	6166	6301	135
	Average spot price in East China	6100	6170	70
	Average spot price in South China	6195	6220	25
	PVC2309 basis difference	-66	-131	-65
	V2401 collection	6206	6331	125
	V2309-2401 closed	-40	-30	10
	PP2309 collection	7617	7736	119
	Plastic L2309 collection	8233	8336	103
	V--PP basis difference	-1451	-1435	16
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2067	-2035	32

China PVC Index: according to Tudoduo data, China calcium Carbide PVC spot index rose 38.43, or 0.628%, to 6160.13 on August 30th. The PVC spot index of ethylene method is 6575.96, down 0%, the range is 0%, the index of calcium carbide method is down, the index of ethylene method is stable, and the price difference between ethylene method and calcium carbide method is 415.83.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	8.29 warehouse orders	8.30 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	501	501	0
	Guangzhou materials	141	141	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	360	360	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	231	287	56
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	231	287	56
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,762	2,762	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,000	1,000	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,143	1,143	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	7,443	7,443	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,531	1,531	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	2,124	2,124	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	50	50	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	100	100	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	900	900	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
PVC subtotal		25,889	25,945	56
Total		25,889	25,945	56