Methanol: The bullish atmosphere is gradually rising. Futures market rises more than 3% and spot prices continue to increase

On August 30, the methanol market price index was 2279.53, up 17.17 from yesterday and 0.76 per cent higher than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 29th:

China CFR 278-280USD / ton, up US $2.00 / tonne

European FOB 232.5-234.5 euros / ton, up 3.25 euros / ton

Us FOB 68-70 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 292.5-294.5 US dollars / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2190-2240 (20), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 2180-2200 (40), Lunan: 2450 (20), Henan: & nbsp;2360-2380 (15), Shanxi: 2240-2300 (40), Port: 24902515 (70)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 220-290 (0amp 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 260-310 (- 10 Universe 10), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 150-210 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 200-270 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the futures market strongly pulls up, the spot price runs with the rise, and the price increases. 10-70 yuan per ton, the base difference of the port is strong, the spot transaction is OK, the spot supply in some parts of China is reduced, the inventory pressure of enterprises is not great, the price-raising sentiment of the operators in the market is strong, the production enterprises raise their quotations for shipment, and all the auctions are mainly sold, and the transaction price continues to rise. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have been raised. Today, the price of the southern route is 2050-2060 yuan / ton, and the low end is stable. The price of the northern line is 2180-2200 yuan / ton, and the low end is raised by 40 yuan / ton. At present, many devices in the field are overhauled, resulting in tight supply. The auction transaction prices of some enterprises continue to rise, and the transaction atmosphere is good. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field. The market price of consumer land has been raised by a narrow range, with 2450 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 20 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2440-2470 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, which is stable at the low end. at present, the market negotiation atmosphere is active, and the mentality of operators is strong. Prices rose in North China, of which Shanxi quoted 2240-2300 yuan / ton, the low end raised 40 yuan / ton, Hebei quoted 2350-2400 yuan / ton, and the low end increased 20 yuan / ton. at present, the supply on the market is tight, traders are actively receiving goods, and the trading atmosphere is OK. Prices in southwest China have been partially raised, of which Yungui quoted 2280-2400 yuan / ton, the low end increased by 40 yuan / ton, Sichuan and Chongqing quoted 2330-2450 yuan / ton, and the low end is stable. At present, some of the maintenance equipment in the field has not yet been restarted, the inventory remains low, and the willingness of the consignor to raise the price is still there. Market enquiries are OK, and the deal is smooth. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated higher today. Within the month, rigid demand procurement, the basis is strong. Forward part of the unilateral high shipments, arbitrage buying mainly, the basis is slightly weak. It's a good deal. Taicang main port transaction price: 8 lower transaction price: 2490-2515, base difference 01-70 picturesque 55ten 9 on transaction: 2490-2525, base difference 01-60 pictures9 on deal: 2500-2535, base difference 01-45 bot 9 on deal: 2505-2555, base difference 01-40 pound 35 bet 10 on 10 deal: 2530-2585, base difference 01-10 pm 3 lines, 10pm 28.

Future forecast: from the supply point of view: recently, the overall shipments of production enterprises in the Chinese market are good, and enterprise inventory remains low. at present, the new maintenance devices include Yang Coal Fengxi, Shanxi Tianze, Xiaoyi Pengfei, Xinjiang Xinlianxin, Ningxia and Ning, Qitaihe Jiwei, etc., the supply in some areas is slightly tight, the positive support brought by the rising market continues to strengthen, the shipping atmosphere in the region is good, and the trade transfer price is strong. The auction transaction is good, in September, some of the devices in the field or storage autumn inspection plan, the specific situation to be tracked, it is expected that the short-term methanol market supply growth space is limited. From the demand point of view: the construction of terminal downstream products is gradually resuming, and the market mentality is about to enter the peak demand season of Jinjiu Silver Ten. However, with the recent continuous rise in methanol prices, olefins are limited, resulting in a loss stage of downstream olefins or a certain impact on the start-up and storage of olefins. At present, the raw material inventory of some downstream enterprises is still on the high side, Tianjin Bohua plans to overhaul, and Ningxia Baofeng plans to put into production. Sierbang expects to resume the Chinese contract in September, the methanol production of olefin enterprises is still expected to increase, and the downstream demand is in a slowly increasing channel. In the later stage, we should pay attention to the commissioning of Baofeng Phase III MTO plant and the downstream profit repair. At present, the macro expectation is good, the cost change is limited, the performance of methanol fundamentals is OK, the overall positive factors of the market are dominant, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to rise in the short term. in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.