Methanol: Futures market fluctuates at high levels, China's spot stocks are stable and rising

On August 29th, the methanol market price index was 2262.36, up 10.53 from yesterday and 0.47 per cent from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 28:

China CFR 276-US $279 / ton, down US $2 / ton

European FOB 229.25-231.25 euros / ton, down 1 euro / ton

Us FOB 68-70 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 292.5-294.5 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2170-2230 (20), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 2140-2180 (80), Lunan: 2430 (30), Henan: & nbsp;2345-2360 (15), Shanxi: 2200-2275 (0), Port: 2420-2275 (- 25)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 220-290 (0ram Mueller 10), South Route-North Shandong 270-320 (0qure 20), Shanxi-North Shandong 150-210 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 200-270 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is arranged at a high level, and the spot price fluctuates. 5-50 yuan per ton, the futures market rebounded after falling, the basis maintained stability, the port spot maintained rigid demand, the transaction was light, the inventory of most enterprises in the Chinese market was low, the trade transfer price was firm, and some enterprises raised their quotations for shipment. the overall transaction atmosphere is OK, and the premium transaction is the main transaction. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have risen. Today, the price of the south line is 2050-2060 yuan / ton, and the low end is stable. The price of the north line is 2140-2180 yuan / ton, and the low end is raised by 80 yuan / ton. among them, Shaanxi Changqing methanol is up to 70 yuan / ton for the third time this week: 2300 yuan / ton for 2000 tons, and 2310 yuan / ton for more than 2000 tons. The 600000-ton methanol plant in the plant is in normal operation, and the inventory pressure is not great at present. Baofeng Phase III MTO plant test run to boost the market, some enterprises bid transaction prices rise, the later stage also need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field. The market price of consumer land has been raised by a narrow range, with 2430 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 30 yuan / ton in the low end, 2440-2460 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, and 50 yuan / ton in the low end. At present, the market is cautious and the mentality of operators is strong. Up to now, today's market bidding price is around 2430-2470 yuan / ton, Jincheng Petrochemical methanol bidding price 2460-2470 yuan / ton, Shenchi Chemical 2450 yuan / ton, Oriental Hualong 2430-2440 yuan / ton. Prices rose in North China, of which Shanxi quoted 2200-2275 yuan / ton, the low end was stable, Hebei quoted 2330-2380 yuan / ton, the low end increased by 30 yuan / ton, the current market supply is tight, traders actively receive goods, the trading atmosphere is OK. Prices in southwest China have been partially raised, of which Yungui quotation is 2240-2400 yuan / ton, low-end price is stable, Sichuan-Chongqing price is 2330-2400 yuan / ton, and low-end price increase is 50 yuan / ton. at present, some maintenance equipment in the field has not yet been restarted, inventory remains low, and the willingness of the consignor to raise the price remains, market enquiries are still available, and downstream factories buy more according to demand. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: today, methanol futures shock consolidation. Within a month, arbitrage is active, purchase on demand, and close the deal at a reasonable price. Long-term unilateral high sell low suction, the base difference is slightly stronger. The replacement of goods has continued in recent months. The overall transaction is active. Taicang main port transaction price: 8 under deal: 2420-2460, base difference 01-70 picture65 between9: 2440-2450, base difference 01-55 umbrellas 9 medium transaction: 2440-2470, base difference 01-50 Universe 45 umbrellas 9 deals: 2455-2490, base difference 01-35 Universe 28 players 10 deals: 2485-2520, base difference 01-5 Universe 01-5 footprint 10 "28alpha" 30.

Future forecast: supply: at present, there is equipment overhaul and restart in the field, and there is no pressure on the inventory of Chinese enterprises for the time being. although Yanzhou Mining Guohong, Orchid Kechuang, Ningxia Kunpeng, New Austria Phase II and other devices have been restarted, however, methanol plants such as Yangmei Fengxi, Shanxi Tianze, Xiaoyi Pengfei and other methanol plants are stopped for overhaul, the Central Plains Dahua plant is in half-load operation, the supply in some areas is slightly tight, and the positive price sentiment of some production enterprises is still there. Traders and downstream actively receive goods, the transaction atmosphere is good, in the later stage, some units are still planned to be overhauled, and it is expected that the overall supply growth of methanol market in the short term is limited. Demand: the start-up of terminal downstream products showed varying degrees of growth, but due to the impact of less than expected economic recovery in the first half of the year, the start-up growth of most industries was relatively slow. At present, the raw material inventory of some downstream enterprises is still on the high side. Tianjin Bohua 600000 ton olefin plant is planned to be overhauled for one month, but the failure of Jiutai 2 million ton methanol plant is reduced and the 1 million ton plant is stored for maintenance at the beginning of September. Sierbang olefin plant is expected to resume the Chinese contract in September, and the methanol production of olefin enterprises is still expected to increase. Coupled with the support of Jinjiu Silver Ten to the mentality of the industry, downstream demand is in a slowly increasing channel. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the commissioning and load changes of Baofeng Phase III MTO plant. At present, the macro expectation is good, the performance of methanol fundamentals is OK, the demand is slowly increasing the positive expectation brought by gold, silver and silver, and it is expected that the short-term methanol market price may be on the high side. In the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.