PVC: Futures fell sharply at the beginning of the week, with short opening suppressing gains and weakening spot market prices

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August 28, 2023, 5:23 PM

PVC futures analysis: August 28th V2401 contract opening price: 6370, highest price: 6389, lowest price: 6256, position: 650714, settlement price: 6321, yesterday settlement: 6325, down: 4, daily trading volume: 891438 lots, precipitated capital: 2.852 billion, capital outflow: 64.46 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 8.25	Price 8.28	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	6180-6220	6160-6220	-20/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	6200-6260	6170-6240	-30/-20	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	6250-6350	6250-6320	0/-30	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	6100-6200	6100-6200	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	6210-6270	6210-6270	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	6000-6150	6000-6150	0/0	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices weakened, the spot market began to be poor at the beginning of the week. Compared with the valuation, it fell 20 yuan / ton in North China, 20-30 yuan / ton in East China, 30 yuan / ton in South China, and stable in Northeast, Central China and Southwest China. The factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises have not been significantly adjusted since the beginning of the week, most of which remain stable, but there are few contracts signed on Monday, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the spot market. The downward fluctuation of futures is weak, the price offer of traders in the spot market is lower than that of last Friday, and it is difficult to close the deal with one price, and some of them have a small negotiation. After the futures go down, the spot point price has an advantage, and the offer basis changes little. Among them, the base difference offer 01 contract in East China-(50-100), South China 01 contract-(30-70) good powder + 30, North 01 contract-(340-480) Southwest 01 contract-(260). However, whether it is a point price or a mouthful price, the spot trading atmosphere is slightly light, and the terminal purchasing enthusiasm is not good.

Futures point of view: & the nbsp; PVC2401 contract opened high and opened low last Friday night trading, the overall decline in the night trading was not big, and the futures price even shot up in a straight line after the start of the morning trading, but fell at the highest point of 6389. And the iterative afternoon downward range is obvious, the afternoon price is further weaker. 2401 contracts range from 6256 to 6389 throughout the day, with a price difference of 133. 01 contracts reduced their positions by 4866 positions, and so far they have held 650714 positions. The 2309 contract closed at 6185, with 47990 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the intraday price of the nbsp; PVC2401 contract fell sharply from the high, and the intraday decline significantly recouped some of the previous gains. The technical level shows that the futures price shows a negative column, which is located between the upper tracks in the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2). The three-track opening means that the opening is flat, and the trading volume shows a certain degree of short opening suppression, of which the blank opening is 24.2% compared with 21.3% more. However, the change in positions throughout the day is not obvious, only a small reduction in positions. The sharp decline in futures prices makes the KD line at the daily line level show a dead cross, and the MACD line also has a dead cross trend. Excessive amplitude leads to a change in the take-up line. In the short term, the rise in futures prices may have come to an end, and there is a probability of back-testing the middle rail to observe the support performance near 6220 near the middle rail.

Spot aspect: At the beginning of the week, the two markets began to weaken, the decline in one price did not lead to an improvement in transactions, and there was more room for single negotiations, even so, the purchasing enthusiasm in the lower reaches was still poor, and the downward range of futures prices was not enough to cause low orders to appear, so the overall spot market performance on Monday was weak, although upstream production enterprises held steady, delaying the downward time of prices. But at present, when commodities rise less or fall more in the afternoon, the market may have the intention of turning. PVC fundamentals, calcium carbide prices are still sporadic upward, but not enough to lead to price changes, the rest of the variables are not many. In the outer disk, the price of the international crude oil futures market continued to rise, due to Marathon A fire at Petroleum's (MPC) refinery in Garyville, Louisiana has heightened concerns about a decline in global refined oil inventories, and oil drilling activity in the United States continues to decline. Overall, the PVC spot market or shock weak performance in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	8.25	8.28	Rate of change
	V2309 collection	6355	6261	-94
	Average spot price in East China	6230	6205	-25
	Average spot price in South China	6300	6285	-15
	PVC2309 basis difference	-125	-56	69
	V2401 collection	6388	6297	-91
	V2309-2401 closed	-33	-36	-3
	PP2309 collection	7653	7628	-25
	Plastic L2309 collection	8399	8289	-110
	V--PP basis difference	-1298	-1367	-69
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2044	-2028	16

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the spot index of China's calcium carbide PVC fell 12.84 or 0.206% to 6208.82 on Aug. 28. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6630.42, down 7.72, or 0.116%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 421.6.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	8.25 warehouse orders	8.28 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	501	501	0
	Guangzhou materials	141	141	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	360	360	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	231	231	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	231	231	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,762	2,762	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,000	1,000	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,074	1,074	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	7,073	7,263	190
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,531	1,531	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	2,124	2,124	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	50	50	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	100	100	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	900	900	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
PVC subtotal		25,450	25,640	190
Total		25,450	25,640	190