Methanol: China's inventories remain low, industry operators still maintain price sentiment

On August 28th, the methanol market price index was 2251.83, up 3% from the previous working day and 0.13% higher than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 25:

China CFR 278-US $283 / ton, down US $2 / ton

European FOB 230.25-232.25 euros / ton, down 0.75 euros / ton

Us FOB 68-70 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 294.5-296.5 US dollars / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2150-2160 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 2060-2100 (0), Lunan: 2400 (0), Henan: & nbsp;2330-2355 (25), Shanxi: 2200-2260 (- 10), Port: 2445-2460 (0)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 220-300 (0Universe Mur20), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 270-320 (- 20Uniqure 20), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 150-210 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 200-270 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is arranged in a narrow range, the spot price volatility is 10-30 yuan / ton, the futures market volatility is weak, the basis maintains stability, the port spot maintains rigid demand, and the performance of methanol fundamentals is OK at present. The inventory pressure in the Chinese market is not great, and the price-up sentiment of some manufacturers still exists, but the mood of receiving goods downstream is slightly weak, and the transaction is relatively smooth in some areas. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are stable and small. Today, the southern route quotes 2050-2060 yuan / ton, the northern line quotes 2060-2100 yuan / ton, and the low end is stable. Among them, Shaanxi Changqing methanol price this week: 2000 tons quoted 2200 yuan / ton, more than 2000 tons less than 2210 yuan / ton, the plant 600000 tons methanol plant is in normal operation, near the end of the month some enterprises let profit delivery, inventory has been reduced, downstream is resistant to the high price supply The price of receiving goods is limited with the increase, and we need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field in the later stage. Prices in the consumer market are mixed. Southern Shandong is 2400 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, northern Shandong is 2390-2420 yuan / ton, and the low end is reduced by 10 yuan / tonne. At present, the market is cautious and the industry has a strong mentality. Prices in North China remain stable, including 2200-2260 yuan / ton in Shanxi and 2300-2350 yuan / ton in Hebei, with low-end stability, wait-and-see at the beginning of the week and cautious trading on the floor. Prices in southwest China are stable, including 2240-2350 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2280-2380 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, and the low end is stable. At present, some of the maintenance equipment in the field has not been restarted, the inventory remains low, and the willingness of the consignors to raise prices still exists. Downstream factories buy more according to demand, and the transaction is slightly ordinary. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures fell in shock and rebounded in late trading. Within the month, the base difference is strong, purchase on demand, and close the transaction at a reasonable price. Long-term unilateral high sell low suction, the basis to buy more, the current basis is slightly stronger. The replacement of goods has continued in recent months. The overall transaction is active. Taicang main port transaction price: 8 under deal: 2420-2450, base difference 01-70 picture65 better9 on deal: 2440-2455, base difference 01-60 picturesque 55 between9: 2460-2485, base difference 01-50 Maxima 45 cross 9 deals: 2460-2500, base difference 01-40 Universe 30 umbrellas 10: 2490-2535, base difference 01-10 bot 0bot 10 times 30.

Forecast in the future: the coal price is stable in the near future, and the cost support is general. With the gradual recovery of the early maintenance equipment, the Chinese market has reached a high level, the shortage of spot supply in the market has been alleviated, and the increase in market prices has slowed down. transaction prices in some areas have fallen slightly, due to the smooth delivery of enterprises in the previous market, there is no pressure on the inventory of Chinese enterprises for the time being. In addition, Ningxia Heming, Shanghai Huayi, Yangmei Fengxi and other units are overhauled as scheduled, the overall supply growth in the short-term methanol market is expected to be limited, and in terms of demand, the start-up of terminal downstream products has increased by varying magnitudes. However, due to the impact of the less-than-expected economic recovery in the first half of the year, the start-up growth in most industries is relatively slow. At present, the raw material inventory of some downstream enterprises is still on the high side. However, Jiutai 2 million-ton methanol plant failure reduction, 1 million-ton plant early September storage maintenance plan, Silbon olefin plant is expected to resume the Chinese contract in September, some olefin enterprises methanol production increased, later olefin downstream still have reserve demand, and September the traditional peak season is approaching, the demand side may be a certain positive support, the later stage also need to pay attention to Baofeng Phase III MTO plant put into production and load changes. At present, the cost support is limited, and under the game of supply and demand factors, the fundamentals are expected to improve, but a variety of market emotions are intertwined, the market operators are cautious, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to rise narrowly. In the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.