Methanol: The methanol market is narrow and the downstream receiving sentiment is weak

On Aug. 25, the methanol market price index was 2248.83, up 0.04% from yesterday and 0.002% higher than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 24:

China CFR 280-282 US dollars / ton, up 3 US dollars / ton

European FOB 231233euros / ton, down 2 euros / ton

Us FOB 68-70 cents per gallon, down 1 cent per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR 294.5-296.5 US dollars / ton, up 10.25 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2150-2160 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 2060-2100 (0), Lunan: 2400 (0), Henan: & nbsp;2305-2335 (- 5), Shanxi: 2200-2260 (- 10), Port: 2445-2460 (5)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 220-320 (10amp 0), South Line-North Shandong 290-340 (10max 10), Shanxi-North Shandong 150-210 (20pm 10), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 200-270 (10max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is arranged in a narrow range, the spot price fluctuates 5-10 yuan / ton, the futures market closes at the end of the day, the port spot negotiations are OK, the inventory of Chinese enterprises has declined, and the price-up sentiment of manufacturers still exists. it is OK in some areas, but the mood of receiving goods downstream is gradually weakening, there is some resistance to the supply of high prices, and the rise of the spot market is limited. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are stable and small. Today, the southern route quotes 2050-2060 yuan / ton, and the northern line quotes 2060-2100 yuan / ton. The low end is stable. At present, the inventory of enterprises in the field has been reduced, and the price-up sentiment of some manufacturers is still there. Approaching the long settlement date at the end of the month, the enterprise shipment is relatively smooth, and the later stage also needs to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field. Consumer market prices have been partially raised, with southern Shandong at 2400 yuan / ton, the low end stable, northern Shandong at 2400 yuan / ton, and the low end up by 50 yuan / ton. at present, the market is trading cautiously and the industry has a strong mentality. Prices in North China have been partially reduced, including 2200-2260 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 10 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2300-2350 yuan / ton in Hebei, which is stable at the low end. the lower reaches are more resistant to high-priced supply, and rigid demand is the main transaction. Prices in southwest China remain stable, including 2240-2350 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2280-2380 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, with a low end. At present, part of the maintenance equipment in the field has not been restarted, the inventory remains low, and the willingness of the consignors to raise prices still exists. Downstream factories buy more according to demand, the transaction is slightly ordinary. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: futures fluctuate in a narrow range. The spot demand is limited, the paper goods arbitrage mainly, the unilateral bargain receives the goods, the base difference is slightly stronger, the exchange continues, the transaction is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: 8 transaction price: 2445-2460, basis 01-70, 09: 010 transaction: 2455-2470, base difference 01-60 exorbitant: 2480, base difference 01-45: 9 transaction: 2470-2495, base difference 01-35: 10 transaction: 2510-2520, base difference 01-10 pm 7.

Future forecast: cost: the coal price is stable and strong in the near future, and the cost end support is OK. Affected by the upward quotation of the port, the market sentiment has improved, but the peak summer is coming to an end, the support of terminal demand is weak, and the power of short-term coal price rise is limited. On the supply side: with the gradual recovery of the early maintenance equipment, the Chinese market has been started to a high level, and the overall supply is relatively stable. under the support of the recent favorable market, some enterprises are in good condition of shipment and some inventory is reduced. Baofeng Phase III MTO commissioning, methanol external sales decreased, coupled with the Ningxia Kunpeng methanol plant failure is about to stop, resulting in tight spot supply in some areas, multiple favorable factors, the manufacturer's willingness to bid is obvious. At present, Shanghai Huayi, Yangmei Fengxi and other devices are planned to be overhauled, Hebei Jinshi, Yanzhou Mining Guohong plant restart recovery, the short-term supply side may not fluctuate much. In terms of demand: the demand of the terminal traditional downstream market grows slowly, the Sierbang olefin plant runs at full load, Gansu Huating starts up steadily and the load increases steadily, and the olefin operation rate increases during the week, while Shandong Jincheng suddenly stops, methanol external mining decreases, and the downstream enterprise raw material inventory is on the high side, the resistance to the high price supply is gradually rising, the transaction mostly maintains the rigid demand, and the overall follow-up of downstream demand is limited. The gold nine silver ten is coming, the demand side or stock is expected, in the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the production and load changes of Baofeng Phase III MTO plant. At present, the macro view and cost support are OK, the basic supply and demand of methanol is good, but the price continues to rise, the mood of receiving goods downstream is slightly weak, the mentality of the operators in the market is cautious, and the price range of methanol market is expected to be sorted out in the short term. in the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.