PVC: Futures market correction fell slightly, coinciding with a decline in activity on Friday and a consolidation of the spot market range

108,910

August 25, 2023, 4:35 PM

PVC futures analysis: August 25th V2401 contract opening price: 6324, highest price: 6367, lowest price: 6284, position: 655580, settlement price: 6325, yesterday settlement: 6348, down: 23, daily trading volume: 715763 lots, precipitated capital: 2.916 billion, capital inflow: 41.41 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 8.24	Price 8.25	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	6180-6220	6180-6220	0/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	6230-6280	6200-6260	-30/-20	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	6250-6350	6250-6350	0/0	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	6100-6200	6100-6200	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	6240-6300	6210-6270	-30/-30	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	6090-6250	6000-6150	-90/-100	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices continue to sort out the trend, high-level operation. The comparison of valuation shows that North China is stable, East China is down 20-30 yuan / ton, South China and Northeast China are stable, Central China is down 30 yuan / ton, and Southwest China is down 90-100 yuan / ton. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises are mostly stable, and there are no obvious signs of price adjustment, but there is not much basic quantity signed by the first generation of contracts. The futures price is slightly weak and volatile, and the price offer of traders in the spot market has not changed much. Compared with yesterday, most of them are mainly organized in the interval, but the transaction is mainly concentrated in the low price, and some of them have a small negotiation. With the weakening of the futures price, the spot market begins to offer the spot price, the basis of each region is slightly weaker, but the supply of the spot price under the operation of the high futures price does not have a clear price advantage, in which the East China base difference offer 01 contract-(50-100), South China 01 contract-(Pingshui), North 01 contract-(350-480), Southwest 01 contract-(260). On the whole, the market is relatively inactive on Friday.

Futures point of view: PVC2401 contract night futures prices opened high and low, intraday fell below 6300. The price rebounded after the start of early trading, but the strength was insufficient, and the afternoon high was only maintained at 6367 and did not rise further, mainly in late trading. 2401 contracts range from 6284 to 6367 throughout the day, with a spread of 83. 01 contracts with an increase of 8087 positions and 655580 positions so far. The 2309 contract closed at 6281, with 55564 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2401 contract prices showed a pullback trend in intraday trading, especially in night trading, and prices recovered from early trading to afternoon trading. After two sharp increases during the week, commodity sentiment has stabilized, the cultural index has also shown a trend of narrow collation today, and the late price of the main PVC contract closed well. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) is still divergent, and the KD line and MACD at the daily level still show a golden fork trend, but the distance between the two lines is shortened, and the upper rail pressure level of the weekly line is effective. The operation of the current futures price we still maintain the previous judgment, there are expectations in the third quarter, but the expectation is correspondingly advanced, and we will continue to observe the performance near the track pressure level 6410 in the short term.

Spot aspect: The sharp rise in prices in the two cities during the week, while spot trading did not show a good follow-up, which is also the normal price upside this year, and the uplink did not lead to a better trading turn. on the contrary, downstream buying and falling but not buying and rising are more inclined to low replenishment, so although there is a market, production enterprises and traders all report that the pace of shipment is not good, and there is also greater pressure to receive goods in the next generation of high prices. Think more about hedging. The rise of the PVC market tends to be driven by the overall mood of commodities, which comes from its own fundamentals except the support of the cost port, and there are not many other variables, so for the expectation of the third quarter, the rise is early and insufficient, the medium-and long-term consideration of the follow-up market is weak. In the outer disk, prices in the international crude oil futures market rebounded after falling for three consecutive days, with official data showing that a better-than-expected drop in crude oil inventories in the United States last week provided some support to the oil market. but concerns about tight oil supplies are slowing and the rising dollar limits oil price gains. On the whole, the spot price of PVC is still mostly sorted out in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	8.24	8.25	Rate of change
	V2309 collection	6343	6355	12
	Average spot price in East China	6255	6230	-25
	Average spot price in South China	6300	6300	0
	PVC2309 basis difference	-88	-125	-37
	V2401 collection	6378	6388	10
	V2309-2401 closed	-35	-33	2
	PP2309 collection	7620	7653	33
	Plastic L2309 collection	8357	8399	42
	V--PP basis difference	-1277	-1298	-21
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2014	-2044	-30

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index fell 19.66, or 0.315%, to 6221.66 on Aug. 25. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 6638.14, down 9.78%, with a range of 0.147%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 416.48.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	8.24 warehouse orders	8.25 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	501	501	0
	Guangzhou materials	141	141	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	360	360	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	231	231	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	231	231	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,762	2,762	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,000	1,000	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,074	1,074	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	7,073	7,073	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,531	1,531	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	2,324	2,124	-200
Polyvinyl chloride	Chuanhua mandarin	50	50	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	100	100	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	900	900	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
PVC subtotal		25,650	25,450	-200
Total		25,650	25,450	-200