Daily review of urea: Daily output declines, market is easy to rise but not fall (August 24)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on August 24 was 2,575.14, up 30.45 from yesterday, up 1.2% month-on-month, and up 7.39% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

The opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract: 2300, the highest price: 2338, the lowest price: 2252, the settlement price: 2292, the closing price: 2255. The closing price increased by 17 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month increase by 0.76%. The daily fluctuation range is 2252-2338, and the spread is 86; The 01 contract has reduced its position by 31169 lots today, and has held 324734 lots so far.

Spot market analysis:

Today, the price of urea in China has increased significantly, and the market quotation has risen overall. Many places have continuously raised their quotations. Currently, the price of urea is at a high level.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China rose to 2,450 - 2,520 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,440 - 2,630 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China rose to 2,540 - 2,550 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,450 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,550 - 2,620 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,490 - 2,680 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles rose to 2,550 - 2,580 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,630 - 2,750 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

On the supply side, affected by the recent coal accident and the production reduction of plants in Jincheng, Shanxi, the current supply of urea is tight and the supply of goods is tight. In addition, the company has a large number of centralized maintenance of equipment in recent days. Currently, the company's inventory is at a low level, and suppliers are tightening sales. In terms of demand, the current operating rate of the compound fertilizer market is relatively high, and some crops have fertilizer needs in autumn, so the overall market demand is not small. Internationally, after the marking, overseas quotations fluctuated downward. Taking Egypt as an example, paper cargo in September is currently lowered to around US$360/ton. In terms of futures, as of the close of August 23, the price of the main urea contract UR2401 had a strong daily limit, with an increase of 7.03%. Today, urea futures prices opened higher and went higher, and spot prices followed suit, with strong short-term shocks.

Overall, the current urea market demand still exists and the daily output is low. It is expected that the urea market will likely rise but not fall in the short term.