Methanol: Futures fell back after surging higher and China's transactions were still good

On Aug. 24, the methanol market price index was 2248.79, up 0.3 from yesterday and 0.01 per cent higher than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 23:

China CFR 277-US $283 / ton, up US $2 / tonne

European FOB 233235 EUR / ton, flat

Us FOB 69-71 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 284.25-286.25 US dollars / ton, up 3 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2150-2160 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 2060-2100 (0), Lunan: 2400 (0), Henan: & nbsp;2310-2335 (20), Shanxi: 2210-2270 (- 10), Port: 2440-2270 (15)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 210-320 (0ax 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 280-330 (0ax 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 130-200 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 190-270 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, methanol futures fell back after rising, port spot negotiations are general, Chinese market prices are still mainly rising, but the rising sentiment is limited, spot prices fluctuate 10-20 yuan / ton, while downstream resistance to high prices is gradually apparent, low-end prices are mainly traded, the auction transaction is relatively smooth, and the overall transaction atmosphere is OK. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are mixed. Today, the southern route quotes 2050-2060 yuan / ton, the northern line quotes 2060-2100 yuan / ton, and the low end is stable. At present, the inventory of enterprises in the field has been reduced, and the price-up sentiment of some manufacturers still survives. Approaching the long settlement date at the end of the month, the enterprise shipment is relatively smooth, and in the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field. The price of the consumer market is stable and small, with 2400 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2350-2380 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The low end is stable. At present, the market is cautious and the industry has a strong mentality. Prices in North China have been partially reduced, including 2210-2270 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 10 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2300-2350 yuan / ton in Hebei, which is stable at the low end. the lower reaches are more resistant to high-priced supply, and rigid demand is the main transaction. Prices in southwest China remain stable, including 2240-2350 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2280-2380 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, with a stable low end. at present, some of the devices in the field continue to operate at low load, negotiations are flat, and downstream factories buy more according to demand. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures pull up and fall back. Spot rigid demand negotiations, high shipments within the month, long-term unilateral shipments are limited, cautious offer, arbitrage and exchange mainly, the basis to maintain stability, the monthly price difference enlarged. The overall transaction is active. Taicang main port transaction price: spot / 8: 2445-2485, basis 01-75 picturesque: 2455-2490, base difference 01-65 Meliss9 transaction: 2480-2520, base difference 01-43 Melody 37th 10 transactions: 2510-2550, base difference 01-10.

Future forecast: on the supply side, the supply side of the Chinese market is not fluctuating for the time being. Baofeng Phase III MTO test run in Northwest China, methanol external sales decreased, coupled with the failure of Kunpeng methanol plant in Ningxia, resulting in tight spot supply in some areas, inventory reduction in some Chinese enterprises, and some support for market prices, late August and early September. Shanghai Huayi, Ningxia Heming, Inner Mongolia Boyuan and other devices are planned to be overhauled, and the supply side may be expected. From the point of view of demand: the demand of the terminal traditional downstream market is growing slowly, the Silbon olefin plant is running at full load, Gansu Huating is put into operation and the load increases steadily, and the olefin start-up rate increases during the week, while Shandong Jincheng suddenly stops, methanol external mining is reduced, and the downstream enterprise raw material inventory is on the high side, the market demand has not increased substantially for the time being, but Jinjiu Silver Ten is coming, and the demand side or stock is expected. In the later stage, we should also pay attention to the commissioning of Baofeng Phase III MTO plant and the beginning of Silbon China long contract. At present, the macro market is good, methanol supply and demand is basically expected to be good, but downstream has some resistance to high-price supply, the cautious sentiment of the operators in the market is highlighted, and the price range of methanol market in the short term is expected to be sorted out. In the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.