Methanol: The methanol period continues to push up and the transaction atmosphere weakens

On Aug. 23, the methanol market price index was 2248.49, up 6.38 from yesterday, up 0.28% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 22:

China CFR 275-285 US dollars / ton, down 2 US dollars / ton

European FOB 233235 EUR / ton, flat

Us FOB 69-71 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 281.25-283.25 US dollars / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2150-2160 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 2060-2100 (0), Lunan: 2400 (0), Henan: & nbsp;2290-2330 (- 20), Shanxi: 2220-2260 (30), Port: 2440-2260 (15)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 210-320 (- 20 Uniqure 10), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 280-330 (10mp 10), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 130-200 (20mp 20), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 190-270 (10max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is arranged at a high level, the spot price fluctuation range is 10-60 yuan / ton, the futures market range fluctuates, the basis stabilizes, and the negotiation is general. At present, the overall supply side of the Chinese market has not changed much, while the downstream has obvious resistance to high-priced goods, the receiving mood is slightly weak, traders are more active in adjusting price shipments, low-end transactions are the main, some enterprises auction stock and flow auction, and the overall transaction atmosphere turns weak. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have been partially raised. Today, the southern route quotes 2050-2060 yuan / ton, and the northern line quotes 2060-2100 yuan / ton. The low end is stable. At present, the inventory of enterprises in the field has decreased, the market has maintained a high level, and the quotation of enterprises in the region has been partially raised. The transaction atmosphere is general, and we need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field in the later stage. Consumer market prices are stable, southern Shandong 2400 yuan / ton, northern Shandong 2350-2390 yuan / ton, low-end stability, the current market trading is cautious, the mentality of operators is strong. Prices in North China have been partially raised, including 2220-2260 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 30 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2300-2350 yuan / ton in Hebei, which is stable at the low end. Downstream is more resistant to high-price supply, and manufacturers are under greater pressure to ship goods. Prices in southwest China have risen partially, of which Yungui quoted 2240-2350 yuan / ton, the low end increased by 50 yuan / ton, Sichuan and Chongqing quoted 2280-2380 yuan / ton, the low end is stable. At present, some of the equipment in the field continue to operate at low load, and the rigid demand for replenishment in downstream factories is dominant. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures range volatility. The spot demand is limited, the paper order side meets the high shipment, the futures arbitrage buys mainly, the basis is stable, the replacement train of thought continues, the overall transaction is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot / 8: 2440-2465, base difference 01-73 meme 09pm 9 deal: 2455-2465, base difference 01-60 qure 55 transaction 9 transaction: 2480-2500, base difference 01-40 pm 35 cross 10 transaction: 2505-2520, basis difference 01-10.

Future forecast: the recent macro market is favorable, the futures market is high, and the methanol market price is slightly stronger, but the trading atmosphere is weak. with the recovery of the previous maintenance equipment, the operating rate of methanol enterprises is stable, and the overall Chinese market supply is stable. Baofeng Phase III MTO commissioning in Northwest China, the reduction of external methanol sales and the failure of Kunpeng methanol plant in Ningxia have led to a reduction in supply in some areas. There is a certain support for the market price, and there are still plant maintenance plans in the later stage, supply side or good profit expectation. From the demand side, the terminal traditional downstream market demand increases steadily, Gansu Huating and Sierbang olefin units start up and operate stably, but the downstream enterprise raw material inventory is high, and the market demand has not increased substantially for the time being, while Jinjiu Silver Ten is coming, and the demand side or stock is expected. In the later stage, it is necessary to pay attention to the commissioning of Baofeng Phase III MTO plant. At present, methanol futures continue to be strong, the market mentality is supported, supply and demand are basically expected to be good, but downstream is resistant to high-priced supply, the cautious sentiment of operators in the market is highlighted, and it is expected that the short-term methanol market price range will be sorted out. in the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.