Methanol: Futures hit a four-month high, and spot market prices remained high

On Aug. 22, the methanol market price index was 2242.11, up 0.66 from yesterday and 0.03 per cent higher than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on August 21:

China CFR 277-283 US dollars / ton, up 11 US dollars / ton

European FOB 233235 euros / ton, up 1.25 euros / ton

Us FOB 69-71 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 281.25-283.25 US dollars / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2150-2160 (0), South: 2050-2060 (0), North: 2060-2100 (- 10), Lunan: 2400 (0), Henan: & nbsp;2310-2330 (0), Shanxi: 2190-2260 (0), Port: 2425-2445 (40)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 220-310 (0ram 0), South Line-North Shandong 270-320 (10max 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 110-180 (0ram 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 180-270 (- 20max 10)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is mixed, and the spot price fluctuates by 10-80. Yuan / ton, affected by macro-positive factors, the futures market maintained a high level, some parts of the Chinese market followed the rise, coupled with the recent commissioning of some olefin units, the demand was good, the market atmosphere improved, and some traders actively procured. Enterprise shipments are relatively smooth, and the sale at a premium, the overall transaction is OK. Specifically, the market price range in the main producing areas is fluctuating. Today, the southern line quotes 2050-2060 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the northern line quotes 2060-2100 yuan / ton, and the low end is reduced by 10 yuan / ton. at present, the inventory in the field has accumulated but is still on the low side. and the futures market high shock support industry mentality, some enterprises raise price sales, shipments are OK, in the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field. The consumer market is stable and small, with 2400 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2350-2390 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The low end is stable. At present, the market is cautious and the industry has a strong mentality. Up to now, the bidding price in today's market is around 2350-2390 yuan / ton, including 2390 yuan / ton for methanol from Jincheng Petrochemical Company, 2350 yuan / ton for Oriental Hualong and 2350 yuan / ton for Shenchi Chemical Industry. Prices in North China remain stable, including 2190-2260 yuan / ton in Shanxi and 2300-2350 yuan / ton in Hebei. The low end is stable and the market atmosphere is OK. All the transactions were completed after bidding for the goods. Prices in southwest China have been raised, of which Yungui quoted 2220-2350 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, Sichuan and Chongqing quoted 2280-2380 yuan / ton, and the low end increased by 50 yuan / ton. at present, some of the devices in the field continue to operate under low load, the inventory of enterprises has been reduced, and the price-raising sentiment of manufacturers is obvious. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures consolidation. Unilateral a small amount of high shipments, arbitrage buying active, the basis stabilized, far and near months for more goods, the whole day the overall transaction is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: spot / 8: 2425-2445, base difference 01-73 hundred and thirty-three hundred hundred and fifty five hundred and ninety nine. Transaction price: 2435, base difference 01-60Maple 55ten transaction: 2460-2480, base difference 01-40ppm 35mm 0940lance 10 transaction: 2500-2510, base difference 01-8qure 5.

Future forecast: cost: coal prices are weak and stable, the support for methanol market is limited, the current peak of coal consumption is coming to an end, traders are more cautious in purchasing, and coal prices are expected to maintain stability in the short term. On the supply side: the early maintenance equipment returned to basic cash, the operating rate of methanol enterprises tended to be stable, and the overall supply margin changed little, but the plant failure in some areas was about to stop, coupled with the MTO commissioning of some production enterprises, the external sales of methanol decreased, resulting in a reduction in supply in some areas and a certain support to the market price, and there were still planned maintenance of the plant in the later stage, and the supply side or reserve profit was expected. Demand: the terminal downstream market demand is stable and good, Gansu Huating olefin plant is put into operation, and Sheng Hong olefin plant is running steadily after restart, but the downstream enterprise raw material inventory is high, the market demand has not increased substantially for the time being, and Jinjiu Silver Ten is coming, the demand side or stock is expected, in the later stage, we need to pay attention to the commissioning of Baofeng Phase III MTO plant. At present, the macro-positive futures market is rising, the supply side is long-term good, the demand is steadily increasing, the fundamentals are good expectations, the market mentality is supported, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. In the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro view, coal prices and the operation of the plant in the field.